Hampshire, Portsmouth and Southampton Minerals and Waste Local Plan: Adopted December 1998

Non-Inert Waste Scenarios

Main Contents Page	Need for Waste Facilities	Clinical Waste
6. Meeting the Need for Waste Management	Non-Inert Waste Scenarios	Scrapyards
General Considerations	Inert Waste Scenarios	Waste Water (Sewage) and Sewage Sludge
Waste Arisings	Landfilling and Landraising	Ancillary Waste Development
Waste Minimisation and Recycling	Waste Processing
Resource Recovery	Difficult and Special Waste

6.40 The rate of void space consumption over the Plan period will be affected by a number of factors, including the level of waste reduction achieved (including waste minimisation, re-use and recycling) and the availability of resource recovery/waste processing capacity (including incinerators). In the preparation of the Plan, the following scenarios were developed, which incorporate a number of different assumptions designed to estimate a range of landfill demand (from 'worst case' to 'best case') over the period of the Plan. In line with the 1994 SERPLAN waste planning advice (RPC 2700), all four scenarios assume that Hampshire will provide sufficient facilities to treat or dispose of all Category A, B and C waste arising in the County, and that Hampshire will continue not to be a net importer of these wastes. Each scenario also assumes that Hampshire had an incineration capacity of approximately 232,000 tonnes per annum until November 1996.

(i) 'Worst Case' Scenario

This scenario assumes no improvement on the 1994/95 recycling level of 7.5% for Category C waste over the Plan period. It also assumes that the level of recycling of Category B waste is 0% with no increase over the Plan period and that no new resource recovery/waste processing facilities will be provided following the decommissioning of the County's municipal waste incinerators at the end of November 1996.

(ii) 'SERPLAN' Scenario

This scenario incorporates the assumptions contained in the 1994 SERPLAN waste planning advice RPC 2700. It also assumes that the combined efforts of waste minimisation, re-use and recycling will result in a 25% reduction in Category B and C waste requiring disposal by 2000. RPC 2700 assumes that Hampshire will have a resource recovery potential of 450,000 tonnes per annum by April 2001 (following the decommissioning of the County's municipal waste incinerators at the end of November 1996).

(iii) 'Hampshire Household Waste Management Strategy' Scenario

This scenario incorporates the County, City and District Councils' prediction of a 26% reduction in Category C waste requiring disposal by 2001. (This includes waste minimisation, re-use, recycling and composting). It includes the SERPLAN target of a 25% reduction in Category B waste requiring disposal by 2000. It also embodies the original (1995) resource recovery/waste processing proposals of the company which has been selected to provide the County's long term household waste management service. These proposals included 360,000 tonnes per annum 'energy from waste' incineration capacity and 48,500 tonnes per annum anaerobic digestion capacity. It assumes that these facilities will be operational in 2000, replacing the incineration facilities decommissioned at the end of November 1996.

(iv) 'Best Case' Scenario

This scenario incorporates the 1994 SERPLAN advice (RPC2700) regarding reduction levels of Category B waste (25% by 2000) and reflects the best aspirations of the County, City and District Councils regarding Category C waste. The Hampshire Household Waste Strategy suggests that a reduction target of 40% for Category C waste could be achieved by 2000. At that level of reduction, it is considered that a resource recovery/waste processing capacity of approximately 445,000 tonnes per annum could also be provided. In this scenario it is assumed that new resource recovery/waste processing facilities would be operational by April 1999, replacing the incineration facilities decommissioned at the end of November 1996.

6.41 For each of these four scenarios, Table 8 sets out the forecast waste disposal requirements for the period 1 April 1993 to 31 December 2001. For each scenario, the projected total quantity of non-inert waste to be disposed by landfill is subtracted from the permitted non-inert void space at 1 April 1993 (plus permissions granted to 1 April 1995), as identified in Table 7. This assumes that all the remaining permitted void space will be available for landfilling within the period to the end of 2001. Planning on the basis of the 'Worst Case' scenario, there would be a need to provide additional landfill capacity for the disposal of up to 3.1 million cubic metres of non-inert (Categories B and C) waste by the end of December 2001. Assuming the 'SERPLAN' scenario is achieved, the landfill capacity shortfall at the end of the Plan period would be approximately 1.6 million cubic metres. This would fall to approximately 1.3 million cubic metres under the 'Hampshire Household Waste Management Strategy' scenario and 0.2 million cubic metres under the 'Best Case' scenario.

Table 8 - Forecast Waste Disposal Requirement for Non-Inert Waste 1 April 1993 - 31 December 2001

Scenario	Forecast Category C Waste Arisings 1993-2001	Reduction Target	Quantity for Disposal	Quantity Incinerated	Resource Recovery Capacity	Quantity Category C Waste Disposed Direct to Landfill		Incineration/ Resource Recovery Residues for Disposal	Total Category C Waste Disposed to Landfill	Forecast Category B Waste Arisings 1993-2001	Reduction Target	Quantity Category B Waste Disposed to Landfill		Total Non-Inert Waste Disposed to Landfill	Landfill Require-ment at end of 2001
	('000 tonnes)		('000 tonnes)	('000 tonnes)	('000 tonnes)	('000 tonnes)	('000 m³)	('000 m³)	('000 m³)	('000 tonnes)		('000 tonnes)	('000 m³)	('000 m³)	('000 m³)
Worst Case	6457	No increase on current level of 7.5%	5973	833	0	5140	6425	200	6625	2861	0% (no increase)	2861	3576	10201	3066
SERPLAN	6457	25% (by 2000)	5419	833	338	4248	5310	281	5591	2861	25% (by 2000)	2514	3142	8733	1598
Hampshire	6457	26% (by 2001)	5460	833	990 (EFW) 132 (AD)	3943	4928	350	5278	2861	25% (by 2001)	2514	3142	8420	1285
Best Case	6457	40% (by 2000)	4981	833	1224	2924	3655	494	4149	2861	25% (by 2000)	2514	3142	7291	156

(Figures rounded)

SERPLAN conversion formula used to convert tonnage to in-tip equivalent volume: 0.8 tonnes Category B and C waste per cubic metre.

Past incineration produced residual waste amounting to 30% of waste input by weight. New resource recovery facilities assumed to produce residues of 30% of waste input by weight from EFW incineration and 10% of waste input by weight from anaerobic digestion, assuming market for digestates. Conversion formula used: 1.25 tonnes process residue per cubic metre.

6.42 Achievement of a 40% reduction in household waste requiring disposal would place Hampshire alongside the very best in Europe. The achievement of this level of waste reduction would require public commitment to the segregation of waste at source and significant and expensive changes in the methods of waste collection; and would rely on the development of markets for recycled products. Whilst the 'Best Case' scenario is the most desirable option, it is a medium to long term objective which is unlikely to be realised during the Plan period.

6.43 Recycling objectives at District, City and County level will increase the proportion of household/amenity wastes being recycled well above the 1994/95 rate of 7.5%. By 1996/97 the recycling rate for household waste had increased to 15%. In April 1995 the County Council opened its third interim materials recovery facility at Otterbourne, which combined with the materials recovery facilities already operating in Portsmouth and Rushmoor (Farnborough), provided a materials recovery capacity of approximately 48,000 tonnes per annum. This capacity will increase as the Hampshire Household Waste Management Strategy is implemented. By the end of 1996/97 approximately 200,000 properties in Hampshire (over 25% of all households) were receiving a 'door to door' collection of recyclables. The majority of the 13 District and City Councils in Hampshire hope to have a complete authority-wide 'door to door' collection service in place by 2000. It is believed this will be the largest recycling scheme in the UK. The County, City and District Councils predict that by 2001 the County will have achieved at least a 26% reduction in waste requiring disposal. On this basis the 'Worst Case' scenario is discounted.

6.44 Whilst the 'SERPLAN' scenario and the 'Hampshire Household Waste Management' scenario have similar waste reduction aspirations, the former does not envisage new resource recovery/waste processing facilities (450,000 tonnes per annum) being provided until April 2001. The projected landfill shortfall of 1.6 million cubic metres which would result from the achievement of this scenario can be taken to represent the upper range of additional non-inert landfill capacity required to be identified to cover the period to the end of 2001. However, the 'Hampshire Household Waste Management Strategy' scenario seeks to present a more realistic picture as it embodies the more up to date waste reduction aspirations of the County, City and District Councils of Hampshire. It also incorporates the resource recovery/waste processing proposals contained in the tender chosen by the County Council in April 1995 for the provision of a long term waste management service for the County. Those proposals, which were subject to further consultation, if implemented, would provide 360,000 tonnes per annum energy from waste incineration capacity and 48,500 tonnes per annum anaerobic digestion capacity. Achievement of this scenario would reduce the landfill shortfall to 1.3 million cubic metres. This figure can be taken to represent the lower range of additional non-inert landfill capacity required to be identified to cover the period of the Plan.

6.45 However, the 'SERPLAN' and 'Hampshire Household Waste Management' scenarios need to be revised in the light of: more recent information on permitted void space, including an adjustment to only take into account void space that is expected to be 'usable' within the Plan period, as referred to in paragraph 6.38 above; and the 1994/95 data for disposals of Category B waste, which show an 18.5% reduction in the quantity landfilled. This results in an increase in the range of additional non-inert landfill capacity that needs to be provided for the period to the end of 2001, to between 1.8 million cubic metres ('Hampshire Household Waste Management' scenario) and 2.1 million cubic metres ('SERPLAN' scenario). Taking into account the expected timing of availability of permitted void space within the Plan period in relation to the annual forecast disposal requirement, it was likely that Hampshire would start to run short of available usable non-inert void space towards the end of 1997 or early in 1998. The SERPLAN Revised Waste Planning Advice (SERP 160) published in 1997, which includes revised waste reduction targets, has not been taken into account in calculating this requirement for additional non-inert waste landfill capacity.

6.46 Therefore, depending on the rate of waste reduction achieved, and assuming that Hampshire is to be self sufficient in providing treatment/disposal facilities for its own arisings, this assessment exercise indicates that there is a need for the Plan to provide sufficient sites for the development of new resource recovery/waste processing facilities to cater for approximately 400,000 tonnes per annum and a need for the provision of additional landfill capacity for between 1.8 million and 2.1 million cubic metres of non-inert waste for the period to the end of 2001.

6.47 However, following a public consultation exercise in the autumn of 1997, the Household Waste Management Strategy proposals for waste processing plant capacity for south west Hampshire and Southampton have been revised. The provision for this area is now expected to comprise an energy from waste incinerator with a capacity of 165,000 tonnes per annum, with no provision of an anaerobic digestion plant at present. However, there remains a long term aspiration to see an anaerobic digestion plant provided as part of the overall strategy and this possibility is to be considered further by the County Council, Southampton City Council and Hampshire Waste Services, the Councils' waste disposal contractor. The proposals of the Household Waste Management Strategy for north Hampshire and for south east Hampshire and Portsmouth, which are expected to include an energy from waste incineration plant within each area with capacities of 90,000 and 165,000 tonnes per annum respectively, remain unchanged. It is now estimated that, subject to planning permissions being granted, these new energy from waste incineration plants would not become operational until: mid 2001 in north Hampshire; late 2001 in south east Hampshire; and late 2002 in south west Hampshire.

6.48 The effect of these changes, particularly the changes to the timing of implementation of new waste processing plants, is likely to be to increase the requirement for landfill of non-inert waste in the Plan period (to 2001). However, planning permissions were granted in 1997 for additional landfill capacity at Netley, Southleigh Forest near Emsworth, and Squabb Wood near Romsey, totalling approximately 2.9 million cubic metres net non-inert waste capacity. The County Council also resolved in 1997 to permit landfilling of non-inert waste at Blue Haze/Chatsworth Sandpits in Ringwood Forest and at Apsley Farm near Andover (see Policy 38 - Preferred Areas 10 and 11), which will provide a further approximately 4 million cubic metres net non-inert waste capacity.

6.49 However, the Councils will keep the need for new waste facilities under review throughout the Plan period. In particular, to enable them to be able to assess any need there may be for additional landfill capacity, the Councils will carry out regular monitoring of waste disposal need indicators in order to measure the implementation of the Plan. The results of this monitoring will be compared with the assumptions and projections contained in the 'SERPLAN' and 'Hampshire Household Waste Management Strategy' scenarios in order to test the range of need for additional non-inert waste landfill capacity identified in the Plan. The following indicators will be monitored:

(i) annual waste arisings;

(ii) existing and new permitted void space;

(iii) waste recycling/reduction rates; and

(iv) waste processing capacity and the programme for implementation of new waste processing infrastructure.

Revised data arising from the monitoring of these indicators will be put into the models for the 'SERPLAN' and 'Hampshire Household Waste Management Strategy' scenarios in order to re-assess the need for additional landfill provision over the plan period. This re-assessment will be carried out at least annually, as revised data relating to the indicators becomes available.