Archived decisions

APPENDIX 1

HAMPSHIRE COUNTY STRUCTURE PLAN

1996 - 2011 (REVIEW)

POLICY H4 MONITORING PAPER

APRIL 2002

Tim Greenwood Paul Newbold Simon Eden

County Planning Officer City Planning Officer Director of Development

Hampshire County Council Portsmouth City Council and Sustainability

The Castle Civic Offices Southampton City Council

Winchester Portsmouth Marland House

Hampshire PO1 2AJ Southampton

SO23 8UE SO14 7PQ

Foreword

Policy H4 in the adopted Hampshire County Structure Plan 1996-2011 (Review) provides a reserve of land for house building, which will be released if and when the strategic and local planning authorities decide it is needed. The purpose of the policy is to ensure that sufficient housing land is provided throughout the Structure Plan area to meet identified needs, while avoiding the unnecessary use of greenfield land. This is a process for managing the supply of land for housing, including speedy decisions in response to monitoring. It represents the monitor and manage elements of the Government's 'plan, monitor, manage' approach to providing land for new housing.

Supplementary Planning Guidance (SPG) called 'Implementing Policy H4' was published by the three strategic authorities in June 2001. It explains how policy H4 will be implemented. The cornerstone of that implementation process is the publication each year, of this annual monitoring paper.

This paper summarises the policy requirements of the Structure Plan and Regional Planning Guidance (RPG), and assesses the supply of land for future house building. It then compares housing supply with policy requirements, and draws conclusions on whether there is a need to release any of the reserve housing provision. The information on housing supply represents the situation at 1 April 2001. The annual monitoring process is set out diagrammatically in Annex Two.

The 'baseline plus reserve' approach to housing provision in the Hampshire County Structure Plan 1996-2011 was designed to deal with the possibility that the then yet to be finalised RPG would require more than the baseline housing provision. The RPG figure (6030 dwellings per annum) now sets the amount of new housing for which provision must be made in the Structure Plan area. This monitoring paper sets out how that RPG figure will be met.

Comments are invited on this document from the House Builders Federation, the Government Office for the South East and other interested individuals and organisations. All comments should be sent by post to Tim Greenwood, County Planning Officer, Hampshire County Council, The Castle, Winchester SO23 8UE or by e-mail to [email protected] by 17 May 2002.

This document and the comments received on it will be considered by the Strategic Planning Joint Advisory Panel (JAP) on 25 June 2002. That meeting will decide whether any of the reserve provision needs to be released, and if so, when. This sequence of publication of a monitoring paper, consultation and decisions by JAP will be repeated annually.

All references to 'Hampshire' and the 'Structure Plan area' should be interpreted as meaning the combined administrative area of Hampshire County Council, Portsmouth City Council and Southampton City Council.

Contents

1. Policy requirements

2. Housing supply

3. Comparison of housing supply and policy requirements

4. Conclusions

Annex One: Structure Plan Policies H2 - H4

Annex Two: The Annual Monitoring Process

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1. Policy Requirements

1.1 The policies of the adopted Hampshire County Structure Plan 1996-2011 (Review) provide a 'baseline provision' for new homes and a 'reserve provision' which will be released if and when the strategic and local planning authorities decide it is needed.

1.2 Policy H2 establishes a baseline housing provision of 80,290 additional dwellings in the Structure Plan area over the fifteen year period 1996-2011. This is an average of 5353 dwellings per year. Policy H4 provides a reserve provision of up to 14,000 dwellings over the ten year period 2001-2011: an average of 1400 per year. The baseline and reserve provision together provide for up to 6,752 dwellings per annum 2001-2011. The two policies are reproduced in Annex One.

1.3 Policy H4 identifies the broad locations of the reserve provision and describes, in general terms, how decisions will be made on releasing the reserve provision. That includes assessing whether the reserve provision should be released in the light of revised Regional Planning Guidance (RPG) and whether, in light of monitoring, there is a compelling justification to release greenfield reserve sites. The policy states that issues to be considered in reaching a decision will include:-

i. the rate of development of land in existing built-up areas (including development of land and buildings previously vacant, underused, derelict or released from a former use) across the whole of the structure plan area; and

ii. the programme of development of local plan allocations and windfall and brownfield sites.

1.4 The process for reaching these decisions is explained in greater detail in the Supplementary Planning Guidance 'Implementing Policy H4' which was published by the strategic planning authorities in June 2001.

1.5 Revised Regional Planning Guidance for the South East (RPG9) was published by the Government in March 2001. The RPG requires development plans to make provision for an annual average of 6,030 additional dwellings in Hampshire between 2001 and 2006. This annual rate lies between the Structure Plan baseline figure (5353) and its baseline plus reserve (6,752) figure.

1.6 The Regional Planning Guidance states that all its housing figures will be reviewed before 2006 in the light of monitoring, the findings of urban capacity studies and studies of potential growth areas. It suggests that the rate of house building in the Region should be increased in future years but states that the rates of provision for the period 2001-2006 should apply beyond 2006 until such time as a different housebuilding rate is adopted following the review of the RPG.

2. Housing supply

2.1 Hampshire County Council, in consultation with the other two strategic and the local planning authorities, annually collects and collates data on sites which have planning permission for housing or are allocated for housing in adopted and draft local plans. Some of the sites with planning permission are already under construction; for these the number of dwellings yet to be completed is established through site visits by officers of the strategic planning authorities. This information is published each year in the report Housing Land Supply in Hampshire.

2.2 The 2001 edition of that document¹ shows that the 2001-2011 capacity of sites with planning permission or allocated in adopted and published draft Local Plans (excluding reserve sites) at 1 April 2001 is:-

Identified large sites (10 or more dwellings)	31,367
Identified small sites (less than 10 dwellings)	2,954
Total	34,321

The figures for each local planning authority area are shown in figure 1.

2.3 Based on their knowledge of the readiness of each large site for development and the intentions of the landowner/housebuilder, county, city and district officers jointly make a judgement on the number of dwellings likely to be built in each of the next five years on that site. An overall figure is calculated for the ensuing five years, reflecting that short-term predictions are more accurate than longer term ones. The overall figures for all large sites are in Figure 2. It does not include the Major Development Areas (MDAs); these are dealt within paragraph 2.7 below.

2.4 As part of the preparation of revised/new local plans, each local planning authority in the Hampshire County Structure Plan area is carrying out an 'urban capacity study' to establish the capacity for accommodating new housing within existing urban areas. To ensure a consistent and thorough approach to assessing urban capacity, the strategic planning authorities published in July 2001 a set of guidelines for such studies.² The essence of the approach is to establish the maximum theoretical capacity of all sites with potential for housing development, redevelopment and conversion from other uses, and then to 'discount' sites which are unlikely to be developed in the short - medium term because of physical, ownership or other constraints.

Figure 1: Total Housing Land Supply by Local Authority Area 2001-2011

Authority	Large sites	Small sites	Total
Basingstoke	5475	213	5688
East Hampshire	2402	311	2713
Eastleigh	1166	133	1299
Fareham	1847	184	2031
Gosport	2740	71	2811
Hart	2907	150	3057
Havant	967	212	1179
New Forest	2043	369	2412
Portsmouth	3033	324	3357
Rushmoor	945	119	1064
Southampton	5087	330	5417
Test Valley	1413	239	1652
Winchester	1342	299	1641
Structure Plan Area	31367	2954	34321

Figure 2: Expected dwelling completions on identified large sites across the Structure Plan area.

Total	2001/2	2002/3	2003/4	2004/5	2005/6	2006-2011
31367	4325	4514	5543	4292	3686	9007

Source: Hampshire County Council

2.5 Most of the local planning authorities (city and district councils) have completed their studies; a further one is due to be published by the end of May 2002 and the final one later in 2002. For this Monitoring Paper, the urban capacity figure from each of these completed studies has been adjusted to exclude sites which already have planning permission or are allocated in local plans published before 1 April 2001. These sites are already included in the figures for identified sites in Figure 1 above. The net urban capacity figures are in figure 3.

2.6 It is anticipated that the findings of the two yet to be completed urban capacity studies will not significantly alter the overall conclusions of this monitoring paper.

2.7 The final component of potential housing land supply is the four Major Development Areas (MDAs) which form part of the Structure Plan's baseline housing provision. These MDAs will be new communities on the edge of existing urban areas, and will include new employment, shops, schools and other local facilities as well as a variety of types and tenures of new homes, including affordable housing. The Structure Plan intends that the MDAs will provide the following number of new homes by 2011:-

Basingstoke MDA	4,000
South East of Eastleigh MDA	3,000
Andover MDA	3,000
West of Waterlooville MDA	2,000
Total	12,000

Figure 3: Dwelling capacity 2001-2011 in urban capacity studies excluding sites with planning permission or allocated in draft/adopted local plans.

Authority	Large sites	Small sites	Total	Comments
Basingstoke	2170	700	2870
East Hampshire	700	1500	2200
Eastleigh	1853+	427	2280+
Fareham	677	308	985
Gosport	119	184	303
Hart	-	1110*	1110*
Havant	593	112	705
New Forest	428	778	1206
Portsmouth	2764	2262	5026
Rushmoor	1746	291	2037	Includes assumed 1000 dwellings on Project Connaught
Southampton	0	1960	1960	All large sites are allocated in the draft Local Plan and thus included in Figure 1.
Test Valley	-	730*	730*
Winchester	873	933	1806
Structure Plan Area	11923	11295	23218

* Figure from 1998 study as current study not yet completed. All assumed to be small sites.

⁺ Includes Dowds Farm ( assumed capacity 550 dwellings for the purposes of this Paper) which is a proposed allocation and does not derive from the urban capacity study. Also 655 dwellings on the Pirelli site have been excluded as they were subject to a development brief, although not having been granted planning permission as at April 2001. Those 655 dwellings are included in Figure 1.

3. Comparison of housing supply and policy requirements

3.1 The total supply of housing 2001-2011 in the structure plan area from the various elements described in section 2 is as follows:-

Large identified sites	31,367
Small identified sites	2,954
Adjusted urban capacity	23,218
Major Development Areas	12,000
Total	69,539

3.2 The 2001-2011 component of the Structure Plan's baseline housing requirement is 53,527 dwellings (two thirds of the 1996-2011 policy figure). The total housing supply is significantly in excess of this figure.

3.3 For the monitoring required by Structure Plan Policy H4, it is necessary to go beyond total figures for land supply and look at continuity of supply up to 2011. This is in order to identify if a shortfall will occur in a particular year so that a release of reserve provision can be correctly timed so as to remedy the shortfall. As the Supplementary Planning Guidance 'Implementing Policy H4' states:

"A comparison will be made between housing supply and the policies in the Structure Plan and new RPG, both in each district and across Hampshire as a whole. The comparison will be separate for each individual year of the next five years, and as an overall total for the remaining years up to 2011. This is because short-term predictions are more accurate than long-term ones. Comparison will expose any potential shortfall in housing land supply in future years."

3.4 As explained in paragraph 2.3, information on the expected output of completed dwellings from each large site is available from the County Council's Land Availability System. The equivalent information for identified small sites and urban capacity sites is not readily available, so this paper must make assumptions about their rates of development.

3.5 As explained in paragraph 2.5, the large sites in the net urban capacity figures do not have planning permission and are not yet included as allocations in a published local plan. For that reason, it will be a year or more before those sites yield completed dwellings. For the purposes of this Monitoring Paper, it is assumed that they will produce a steady flow of completed dwellings from 2004/5 onwards³. It is assumed that in the years up to 2004/5, housing output from those sites will build up to that level as follows:

2001/2 - no houses completed

2002/3 - one-third of the 2004/5 and onwards rate

2003/4 - two-thirds of the 2004/5 and onwards rate

3.6 Small sites by their nature (under 10 dwellings) tend to gain planning permission and then be developed quickly thereafter. This Paper assumes that the small sites already identified will generally be developed over the next two or three years, and that the potential for additional small sites found by urban capacity studies will provide a continuity of supply thereafter. In arithmetical terms, this would assume that identified small sites together with the small sites element of urban capacity will produce a constant supply of new dwellings over the period 2001/2 - 2011.

3.7 The resulting building rate (1425 per annum) however, would represent a significant increase from the 958 built on small sites in 2000/1. Whilst it seems reasonable to envisage a significantly higher future rate of building on small sites in line with the structure plan's emphasis on development within existing urban areas, there must be some uncertainty over whether such a large increase will occur in one year. So this paper assumes that in the first year (2001/2), the number built will rise by half that amount - to 1200 - with the full figure (1450 per annum) being achieved in the second year (2002/3) and each year thereafter.

3.8 The numerical contribution which the Structure Plan envisages that the baseline Major Development Areas will make to overall housing land supply up to 2011 was set out in paragraph 2.7. The local plans which must define the precise boundaries and other details of the MDAs were either placed on first deposit during 2001 or should reach that stage during 2002. They are expected to be finalised and adopted around 2005. Master planning of the MDAs can be undertaken in parallel with local plan preparation, which points to new homes being completed for occupation from around 2006.

3.9 The resulting expectation of future housing supply from these various types of sites in the structure plan area as a whole is set out in figure 4.

Figure 4: Baseline future housing supply across the Structure Plan area

	Total	2001/2	2002/3	2003/4	2004/5	2005/6	2006-2011
Identified large sites	31,367	4325	4514	5543	4292	3686	9007
Urban capacity large sites	11,923	0	455	910	1365	1365	78284
Small sites	14,249	1200	1450	1450	1450	1450	7249
MDAs	12,000	-	-	-	-	-	12,000
Total	69,539	5525	6419	7903	7107	6501	36,084

3.10 The expected annual supply of housing can now be compared with the annual policy requirements of both the Structure Plan and Regional Planning Guidance:-

Figure 5: Comparison of housing supply and policy requirements

Year	Housing Supply	Baseline Structure Plan Requirement	Regional Planning Guidance Requirement
2001/2	5525	5353	6030
2002/3	6419	5353	6030
2003/4	7903	5353	6030
2004/5	7107	5353	6030
2005/6	6501	5353	6030
Average per year 2006-2011	7217	5353	6030

3.11 The comparison reveals that the housing supply is sufficient to meet the Structure Plan baseline requirement every year and to meet the RPG requirement every year except 2001/2.

4. Conclusions

4.1 The Supplementary Planning Guidance 'Implementing Policy H4' states that in the light of the comparison of future housing supply with the policy requirements of the Structure Plan and Regional Planning Guidance, a decision will be made on whether any of the reserve housing provision needs to be released and, if so, when. The SPG adds that it will be necessary to anticipate and act on a housing supply shortfall before it actually happens.

4.2 Section 3 showed that the current projection of housing land supply is sufficient to meet both the Structure Plan and Regional Planning Guidance requirements in every future year.

4.3 On this basis, there is no case this year for triggering the release of any of the reserve housing provision.

4.4 This conclusion, however, rests on an assessment of housing supply which includes a very large component of as yet unidentified sites; about one third of total supply comprises urban capacity study sites. Whilst it is certain that many of these will in due course be developed, there is inevitably some doubt over whether they all will. The results of urban capacity studies have yet to be tested at local plan inquiries, and there are some signs of emerging opposition from those already living in urban areas to intensive housing development in their local neighbourhood.

4.5 This all points to adopting a degree of caution towards the urban capacity figures at the current time. Later in 2002, the strategic planning authorities intend to check the completed urban capacity studies to verify that they are in line with the published guidelines for urban capacity studies in Hampshire, and thus that the resulting capacity figures are reasonable. That verification will enable the next edition of this annual publication to make a more soundly-based assessment of overall housing supply.

4.6 Similarly, the 'identified large sites' include a significant number of sites which are at this stage, only proposed new allocations in draft local plans. These have yet to be considered at local plan public inquiries, after which some may be deleted when the local plan is finalised. Conversely however, there is scope for achieving higher densities of development and thus additional dwellings on some existing allocations.

4.7 The housing supply calculation also assumes that all four baseline Major Development Areas will begin to provide dwellings from 2006 and that the baseline component of each will be fully completed by 2011. If there are any delays in the planning process, infrastructure provision or other factors which prevent one or more of the MDAs from going ahead as assumed, then this would reduce the total housing supply during the period 2006-2011. In that event, it may be necessary to trigger a compensatory release of reserve housing provision. This matter will need to be considered further in the next edition of this paper.

4.8 The possible need to release some of the reserve provision therefore remains, underscoring the requirement in Structure Plan Policy H4 for local plans to identify the reserve sites, in addition to all of the structure plan's baseline provision.

4.9 Whether it is necessary to trigger the release of those reserve sites in future years will depend in large part on whether the housing potential identified in urban capacity studies is realised. This in turn depends on action by the local planning authorities to ensure that suitable urban sites are made available for actual development.

Annex One: Structure Plan Policies H2-H4

H2 Provision will be made in local plans for the development of 80,290 additional dwellings in Hampshire between April 1996 and March 2011, with the following distribution between the Districts:

Total

Basingstoke and Deane 12,060

East Hampshire 5,500

Eastleigh 6,295

Fareham 4,740

Gosport 2,980

Hart 4,750

Havant 2,990

New Forest 5,480

Portsmouth 9,000

Rushmoor 2,980

Southampton 7,330

Test Valley (North) 6,160

Test Valley (South) 2,730

Winchester 7,295

Hampshire 80,290

H3 Out of the total provision of 80,290 additional dwellings in Policy H1, provision for 12,000 dwellings will be met by the development of new communities in line with the individual MDA Policies and will be distributed as follows:

District Total

Basingstoke 4,000

South East of Eastleigh 3,000

Andover 3,000

West of Waterlooville 2,000

Total 12,000

H4 In addition to the housing provision in Policy H2, a reserve housing provision will be identified in local plans to accommodate up to 14,000 additional dwellings in the period 2001-2011, distributed as follows:

In Northern Hampshire

in East Hampshire District 1500 dwellings

in Hart District 1500 dwellings

Winchester City (north) MDA 2000 dwellings

in Basingstoke and Deane District 500 dwellings

Basingstoke MDA 1500 dwellings

In South East Hampshire

West of Waterlooville MDA 1000 dwellings

in Fareham District 1500 dwellings

in Havant District 500 dwellings

In South West Hampshire

in Eastleigh District 1500 dwellings

South East Eastleigh MDA 1000 dwellings

in southern Test Valley 1000 dwellings

in New Forest District 500 dwellings

The need for allocations of land to be released to accommodate this reserve provision will be determined by the local and strategic planning authorities in the light of the policies in revised RPG9. The strategic planning authorities will only support the release of individual Greenfield allocations to meet this reserve provision where monitoring of the Structure Plan and Local Plans indicates there is a compelling justification to do so. Issues to be considered in reaching a decision will include:-

i. the rate of development of land in existing built up areas (including development of land and buildings previously vacant, underused, derelict or released from a former use) across the whole of the structure plan area; and

ii. the programme of development of local plan allocations and windfall and brownfield sites.

Wherever possible, the release of this allocation should be brought forward through alterations to the appropriate local plan.

Annex Two: The Annual Monitoring Process







Dwelling supply each year 2001-2006 and five years 2006-2011



Comparison to establish if a shortfall in any future year.



Consultation on monitoring paper.









Joint Advisory Panel concludes in which Major Development Area(s) and/or district(s) to release reserve provision.

This process will be repeated annually. For a more detailed explanation of the process, please read the Supplementary Planning Guidance 'Implementing Policy H4'.