Contact: Rosalind Rutt, ext 6745

1. Summary

1.1 The following decision is sought:

That the Director of Environment coordinates Hampshire County Council's contribution to the debate about the future of the English countryside initiated by the Countryside Agency.

2. Reason

2.1 To ensure that the County Council engages in and influences the debate, contributing its own analysis and views, particularly about the role of local authorities, Government and other stakeholders in shaping change in the countryside.

3. Other Options Considered and Rejected

3.1 Not to become involved in the debate about the future of the English countryside.

4. Conflicts of Interest Declared by the Decision Maker or a Member or Officer consulted - None.

5. Dispensation granted by the Standards Committee - Not applicable.

6. Reason(s) for the Matter being dealt with if Urgent - Not applicable.

Approved by: ..................................... Date: ..............................

Councillor T K Thornber

Contact: Rosalind Rutt, ext 6745

1. Summary

1.1 At the request of the Leader, this paper has been prepared to report on a key Countryside Agency document on the future of the English countryside. It recommends that the Director of Environment coordinates Hampshire County Council's contribution to the debate on this topic.

2. Background

2.1 "The State of the Countryside 2020", published by the Countryside Agency in April 2003, examines the future of the English countryside. This report sets out the background to the document; outlines some of the key matters included within it, and makes some comments and recommendations.

2.2 "The State of the Countryside 2020" does not attempt to predict the future, nor does it set out the agency's vision of how it would like the countryside to be in 2020. Rather, it seeks for a better understanding of how the countryside is changing - to identify what will shape the future and with what possible outcomes. This will be used to stimulate debate; suggest areas for future study in greater depth; and begin to identify what needs to be done. The agency emphasises that the report is therefore only part of a longer process.

2.3 The study identifies the global economy and the influence of England's distinctive history as the key drivers of change in the countryside. It then examines in some detail the likely trends, policy challenges and key uncertainties as to who will live in the countryside, how they will earn their living and what the quality of life will be.

2.4 Four alternative scenarios for the future of rural England are outlined, all of which assume sustained economic growth. The main variables are the extent to which the countryside becomes environmentally sustainable and socially cohesive.

(i) In `The countryside means business', rural England develops in an environmentally unsustainable direction and is socially fragmented.

(ii) `Go for green!' describes a more environmentally sustainable future, but one in which the countryside is also more socially fragmented.

(iii) `All on board!' is a scenario in which greater social cohesion combines with less environmental sustainability.

(iv) In `The triple whammy', environmental, social and economic sustainability are combined.

3. Key Matters from "The State of the Countryside 2020"

3.1 The number of households in England is predicted to grow substantially. The report identifies uncertainties as to where they will live, with competing pressures between protecting the countryside and counter-urbanisation (including overflow as urban areas fill up). Development may become more dispersed, but this will be resisted by many interest groups. There is a major opportunity to improve the design and sustainability of new settlements and homes in the countryside, and improving the quality of new settlements would ease concerns about development. The rural population is likely to continue to become older, wealthier but with more ethnic variety. Key worker and affordable housing are important issues.

3.2 Four economic types of countryside are likely - commuter countryside, country towns, farmed countryside and ex-industrial areas (ex-mining villages, etc) - each with different prospects for the future. Policy challenges include investment in infrastructure (transport, broadband, etc); rural regeneration; preserving local distinctiveness; and ensuring that workers with the skills needed by local businesses are not priced out of the housing market.

3.3 The document also discusses the forces influencing the future quality of life. These forces pull in different directions in each case, with contrasting outcomes. Farming for example might become more environmentally friendly through continued reform of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), diversification and new farming techniques. Alternatively, pressures from world markets could lead to intensification and environmental harm. There are several factors that could help maintain or reconstruct rural communities, but there are also powerful forces of social fragmentation working against them.

3.4 Of the four possible future scenarios, the report states that `the triple whammy' is the one that everyone wants. In this scenario, economic, social and environmental sustainability combine and the economy changes direction radically to become both greener and more inclusive. Housing and economic development are influenced by widely-held ideals of both environmental and social sustainability. However, this scenario is very demanding and expensive and requires a high degree of collaboration and Government intervention.

3.5 Alternative possibilities as to how local government might develop are suggested by the study, as part of the wider scenarios. These cover a wide range, for example:

(i) Strong, elected Regional Assemblies give priority to business interests, and there is a failure to strengthen the powers of parish, unitary or district councils. "By 2020, many people in the countryside feel excluded from decision making" and "there is growing disillusionment with local partnerships and `community development' ". ("The countryside means business" scenario.)

(ii) "Several regions have elected Regional Assemblies by 2020, and parish councils, district or unitary authorities are strengthened. Local partnerships can bid for funding, but must show that they have engaged and have schemes that are .... sustainable. Rural people feel much more involved in decisions that affect them". ("The triple whammy" scenario.)

3.6 Whilst local government as a whole is seen as having a role, it is notable that, apart from one somewhat ambiguous comment (page 22), the report makes no mention of the important role that County Councils have in rural areas or opportunities to improve that role. Indeed, it seems to assume (by implication) that County Councils may no longer exist.

4. Comments of the Director of Environment

4.1 The Report should be seen within the context of significant changes in rural policy and programmes and an on-going debate about the future of the countryside. Key developments affecting Hampshire include:

(i) Reform of CAP: a substantive and significant reform was agreed between Member states in late June, which will gradually shift support for agriculture production to rural development and environmental measures. A SEEDA conference on 31 July 2003 will address the implications for the South East of England region.

(ii) The Delivery Plan for DEFRA's Strategy for Sustainable Farming and Food was launched at a major rural conference for the South East on 14 July. The Strategy, which will provide important opportunities for rural development in Hampshire, is the Government's response to the `Curry Report' on Sustainable Food and Farming (reported to Cabinet on 27 May 2002).

(iii) The development of an integrated vision for the rural South East was debated at the same conference, focusing also on the key issues that need to be resolved in the development of the new Regional Spatial Strategy.

(iv) A Review of the Rural White Paper (RWP) is currently under way which will produce recommendations and an action plan for accelerating delivery of the RWP by September 2003. (Hampshire County Council hosted a visit of the Review Team in April.)

(v) A review of Planning Policy Guidance Note 7 on the countryside has been promised by Government for some time and may be published this autumn.

(vi) Lord Haskins is currently undertaking a major review of the way in which the Government's rural policies are delivered. The review is looking primarily at the delivery arrangements in DEFRA and the agencies and organisations that report to it, including the Countryside Agency. It is also considering the way in which these bodies work with other organisations (including local authorities) in delivering the rural policies for which DEFRA is responsible. Lord Haskins' final report to DEFRA Ministers is due soon, and is widely expected to include recommendations for substantial changes in rural delivery, possibly with an enhanced role for local authorities.

4.2 The State of the Countryside 2020 is welcome as a contribution by the Countryside Agency to the wide debate about the future of the countryside. It is important to recognise that it is only the beginning of the process. The Countryside Agency says that it intends to use the study to prompt thinking and discussion and to generate insights. It plans to look at some of the key issues in more detail, including looking further at the impacts of the countryside of some of the bigger trends. It hopes that others will also "pick up and run" with some of the issues that have been identified, and challenge the agency on why some have been omitted.

4.3 However, there are considerable shortcomings in the discussion document. In this respect, the Director of Environment wrote to the Countryside Agency on 17 April 2003 expressing surprise and concerns about the way in which the report:

(i) underplays the considerable impact and support for rural areas that local government has, in particular, in shire counties; and

(ii) fails to make the connection with the Government's programme and policies for "Sustainable Communities" in the frequent references to housing in the countryside.

4.4 Hampshire County Council needs to address these and other issues by actively engaging in the discussion and contributing its own analysis and views about the trends affecting the countryside, critical issues, possible outcomes and, crucially, what can be done by local authorities, Government and stakeholders to influence change so as to implement a shared vision for rural areas.

4.5 An important element of the County Council's contribution to the debate should be to emphasise the key role of local authorities - including County Councils - in shaping the future of the countryside. The recent report of the Local Government Association inquiry into "Achieving Rural Revival" (2003) concludes that local authorities are at the heart of facilitating, coordinating and delivering services which will secure rural revival. This view came from evidence not just from local authorities themselves, but also from a range of other organisations. The County Council needs to support and promote this view and help explore opportunities to further develop the role of local authorities.

4.6 The County Council should also continue to reject regional government for the South East. This stance is strongly supported by the recent research by MORI on behalf of seven County Councils, including Hampshire. This indicated that there was less support for a referendum on regionalism than any other constitutional issue, and an overwhelming rejection of the proposition once local impacts were known.

Recommendation

That the Director of Environment coordinates Hampshire County Council's contribution to the debate about the future of the English countryside initiated by the Countryside Agency.

8046/RR