Archived decisions

MEDIUM-TERM BUDGET PROJECTION

1. The Authority has been considering the likely effects of the Government's grant settlement announcement due at the end of November.

2. The Authority has considered its medium-term budget position having regard to the greater demands being placed on the police service both nationally and locally when resources are limited and significant changes are taking place in the distribution of general grants, the greater use of additional grants for specific initiatives, wider partnership working and potential greater flexibility in funding capital expenditure.

3. Members have noted that net expenditure on police services is expected to rise (at constant prices) by just under 5% next year, with significantly lower increases in later years. A large element of the reason for these changes is the implementation of the Airwave Project which should be completed in 2004/05.

4. Bids for additional expenditure have been reviewed by the Constabulary's Resource Management Board and only the most demanding have been included in the projection. It is possible that only a current policies budget may be considered affordable and a re-appraisal of existing resources may be required to allow for the "no choice" proposals.

5. With the significant changes in the general grant distribution formula having been introduced in the current year, the dampening process to mitigate the large reduction in grant due to the Authority is still in place and thus there is likely to be an unfavourable settlement for next year.

6. On the basis of the figures in the current policies projection, allowance for only the most demanding additional expenditure and a very early calculation of the level of general grants, the Council Tax is predicted to rise by between 14% and 26% in next year (depending upon spending and grant floor assumptions), with (possibly) smaller rises in the later years.

7. A proper assessment of the level of Council Tax for next year cannot be made until the general grant settlement is announced in November and the annual budget reports are presented to the Panel in January, 2004.

SIMON HAYES

Chairman