Contact: Stuart Roberts, ext 6782 email: [email protected]

1. Summary

1.1 The South East England Regional Assembly is undertaking consultation with stakeholder organisations on the issues to be addressed by the new Regional Spatial Strategy - the `South East Plan'. On 1 June 2004 the Cabinet will be asked to determine the County Council's response to that consultation. Three sub-regional studies, which cover parts of Hampshire, have been completed and also form part of that consultation. Each study assesses whether a sub-regional strategy is required for the area and sets out options for the amount of new development and how this could be accommodated.

1.2 This report recommends the Committee to endorse the need for sub-regional strategies for the Western Corridor (which covers part of north Hampshire) and for South Hampshire. The report also invites the Committee to comment on the three studies prior to the Cabinet considering the County Council's response to the Regional Assembly on the Issues Papers.

2. Corporate Strategy

2.1 This report supports Aims 2 and 3 of the Corporate Strategy (Stewardship of the Environment and Achieving Economic Prosperity) by providing for business growth whilst conserving natural resources and minimising travel demand.

3. The South East Plan

3.1 Preparation of the South East Plan - the new Regional Spatial Strategy - has reached a significant milestone, with the publication by the South East England Regional Assembly, of a suite of 11 discussion papers. These set out information, issues and questions on a range of topics, to which stakeholders have been invited to respond by 28 May 2004. The discussion papers can be seen at www.southeast-ra.gov.uk/southeastplan.

3.2 Key organisations have been invited to stakeholder workshops across the Region; that for Hampshire took place on 27 April 2004. The Regional Assembly is using the term `Spring Debates' for this engagement with stakeholders.

3.3 The Cabinet is to determine Hampshire County Council's response to the discussion papers at its meeting on 1 June 2004. To brief other Members and enable them to feed comments into the Cabinet's deliberations, a seminar for all Members is being arranged for the afternoon of 26 May 2004. A preliminary invitation has been sent to all Members, an invitation pack will be sent soon to all who have registered their wish to attend.

4. Sub-Regional Studies

4.1 Regional Spatial Strategies can incorporate sub-regional strategies for those parts of the region which require more detailed policies than in the main regional strategy. To help the South East England Regional Assembly to decide which sub-regions require that treatment within the South East Plan, the Assembly has commissioned sub-regional studies in 10 sub-regions.

4.2 The studies - being undertaken by the local authorities, particularly County Councils - are required to assess whether a sub-regional strategy is required and, if so, what its geographic boundaries should be (through investigating how strong are the linkages between different parts of the study area). The studies are also required to formulate options for the amount of development to be planned for and options for accommodating it.

4.3 Three sub-regional studies cover parts of Hampshire:

(i) Western Corridor (broadly the Thames Valley but including Basingstoke, Fleet and Rushmoor Borough);

(ii) Blackwater Valley; and

(iii) Eastern Dorset, South Hampshire and the Isle of Wight.

4.4 All three studies have now been completed and presented to the Regional Assembly. They will be the focus for sub-regional stakeholder workshops, later this month, as part of the `Spring Debates' (see paragraph 3.2 above). Presentations on the three sub-regional studies will be part of the seminar for County Council Members on 26 May (paragraph 3.3 above).

5. Western Corridor

5.1 The Western Corridor has experienced substantial growth in recent decades; investment in infrastructure and facilities has not kept pace with development. The significant housebuilding and population increase however has not kept up with job growth, such that there is a shortage of labour in the area. Longer distance commuting has grown, together with traffic congestion. House prices are some of the highest in the country and there is a shortage of affordable housing.

5.2 The sub-regional study forecasts continued job growth: this could be as much as three percent per annum unless recruitment, transport and other difficulties constrain firms' expansion plans. An ambitious programme of transport improvements emerged from an earlier Thames Valley Multi-Modal Study but funding for many of these is not yet assured. Even with full implementation, congestion and journey times would still increase, unless road user charging were introduced as well.

5.3 Continuing with currently planned housebuilding rates would mean an extra 120,000 houses in the Western Corridor up to 2026. An alternative put forward by the study - to house a larger workforce and help make housing more affordable - would mean 180,000 new houses; a 50 percent increase on current building rates.

5.4 The study sets out a range of options for accommodating development, including higher densities in urban areas, focusing development in areas not constrained by Green Belt or other environmental designations, concentrating growth along public transport corridors, designating one or two growth areas, or spreading development evenly across the whole area.

5.5 The Western Corridor Sub-Regional Study Report is attached as Appendix 1.

6. Blackwater Valley

6.1 A study of the Blackwater Valley undertaken by consultants, Atkins/Ancer SPA in 2003, covered much of the work required of the sub-regional studies. That study was reported to this Committee on 21 July 2003. It put forward three scenarios for the amount and broad location of new development. The Regional Assembly has requested the analysis of a fourth, high growth, option which is based around a 50 percent increase in housebuilding.

6.2 A report drawn up by the Blackwater Valley Network assesses the implications of this fourth scenario and summarises the existing Blackwater Valley Study. That report - attached as Appendix 2 - has been submitted to the Regional Assembly. It concludes the fourth scenario will require higher density development, worsen traffic congestion unless demand management measures are introduced together with a mass transit system, and threaten environmental designations in the area. It would however address affordable/key worker housing shortages and skills shortages more effectively than the three scenarios set out in the existing Blackwater Valley Study.

6.3 The Blackwater Valley is also part of the Western Corridor. It looks increasingly likely that the Regional Assembly will decide not to regard the Blackwater Valley as a sub-region in its own right, but as a sub-area of the Western Corridor sub-region.

7. Eastern Dorset, South Hampshire and the Isle of Wight

7.1 This sub-regional study finds that South Hampshire is quite self-contained in economic and housing items. There are linkages with Eastern Dorset, the Isle of Wight and other neighbouring areas, but they are relatively weak. It concludes that a sub-regional strategy is required, which should be closely focused on urban South Hampshire stretching from the Waterside area of New Forest District to Havant.

7.2 South Hampshire has strengths in research and innovation, and emerging business clusters. Unemployment is low but this masks pockets of deprivation and poor skill levels. A net exporter of labour in 1991, the area now has a balance between jobs and resident workers. Employment is forecast to grow faster than the workforce up to 2026. The study postulates four themes for future economic growth:

(i) urban renaissance and a diverse economy;

(ii) enterprise, innovation and youth;

(iii) a UK gateway and location for inward investment; and

(iv) a regional growth area.

A strategy would probably comprise a mix of these.

7.3 Continuing growth in road traffic is forecast in South Hampshire together with growing congestion unless new measures are introduced. These could include public transport improvements, strategic park and ride, encouraging behavioural change, and demand management such as road user charging. Limited road building could be justified to remove local traffic from the sub-region's motorways and provide access to new development.

7.4 Continuing the currently planned rate of housebuilding would mean 70,000 new houses 2006-2026. The study explores options of 20 percent and 40 percent above this rate: 81,000 and 95,000 new houses respectively. Applying the Kate Barker review scenarios to South Hampshire would mean up to 129,000 new dwellings. Existing Local Plan allocations and other `urban capacity' sites could provide for some 40,000 of these new dwellings. The remainder would need to be accommodated by higher densities in urban areas and/or on greenfield land. Areas of search for new greenfield sites would be the undeveloped parts of Eastleigh, Fareham and Havant boroughs. The study also raises the question of accommodating some of the development in Test Valley or Winchester Districts, or on the Isle of Wight.

7.5 The draft Eastern Dorset, South Hampshire and Isle of Wight Sub-Regional Study is attached as Appendix 3. It was due to be considered by the Study Steering Group on 28 April 2004 and may have been amended in detail by that meeting.

8. Next Steps

8.1 The Regional Assembly will consider the sub-regional studies, and stakeholders' comments on them, during June and July. It will decide for which areas sub-regional strategies need to be prepared and then commission the relevant local authorities to prepare them.

8.2 In parallel, it will consider the views of stakeholders on the region-wide discussion papers (paragraph 3.1 above) and draw up a set of principles to guide the preparation of the regional strategy.

8.3 The aim is for draft regional and sub-regional strategies to be ready for public consultation during January-March 2005.

9. For Discussion

9.1 This Committee is asked to consider whether it agrees agree that sub-regional strategies are required for the Western Corridor (including the Blackwater Valley) and South Hampshire. Such strategies would provide a more detailed planning framework for Local Development Plans and, if prepared by the local authorities, provide them with a greater influence over the content of the South East Plan in relation to their areas.

9.2 The Committee is also invited to offer any views and comments on the sub-regional studies.

Recommendations

1. That the need for sub-regional strategies for the Western Corridor and South Hampshire be endorsed.

2. That the Committee comments on the content of the sub-regional studies.

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