APPENDIX 2

SUB-REGIONAL STUDY FOR THE BLACKWATER VALLEY

DRAFT REPORT TO SEERA

1. INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND

1.1 The Blackwater Valley Network was formed in 1996 to co-ordinate action across administrative boundaries and to avoid fragmentary initiatives. It is a formal partnership between Hampshire and Surrey County Councils, Bracknell Forest and Wokingham Unitary Councils and Guildford, Hart, Rushmoor, Surrey Heath and Waverley District/Borough Councils. Its purpose is to ensure a co-ordinated approach to land-use and transportation planning. The area takes in all of the administrative area of Rushmoor borough and parts of the other local authority areas and is shown on the map overleaf.

1.2 The area was identified in RPG9 (March 2001) as a sub-region within the Western Policy Area. The RPG stated that "if future economic growth is to take place, further collaboration will be required to ensure a co-ordinated approach to land-use and transportation planning, making the best use of the existing urban areas and infrastructure".

1.3 The RPG required that a study be undertaken to

"assist in optimising the future economic growth in the area. Such a study could clarify the extent of the Blackwater Valley sub-region and identify the best locations for economic growth on the basis of taking advantage of local potential. It should help to identify areas where labour supply is constraining growth and take positive measures to relieve this problem, either by the provision of more housing or by the improvement of public transport".

1.4 The RPG went on to require that joint working will also be required to

"reflect any agreed strategy for the area in development plans, local transport plans and other relevant strategies".

1.5 The Blackwater Valley Authorities jointly commissioned a study in 2002 from Atkins/Ancer SPA. The study was published for consultation in April 2003.

1.6 Recently the Housing Officers of the constituent district/borough councils have met to co-ordinate action on Housing Needs Surveys and to develop a co-ordinated sub-regional strategy.

1.7 Current work includes updating the Compendium of Data to include the emerging data from the 2001 Census, and developing a Blackwater Valley Air Quality Strategy. An Urban Landscape Character Analysis has also been undertaken which is now being updated.

2. CHARACTERISTICS OF THE BLACKWATER VALLEY STUDY AREA

Overview of the Study Area

a) Settlement Pattern

2.1 The Blackwater Valley contains a number of small and medium sized towns which are clearly distinguished as separate settlements. Their differences are emphasised by the narrow but important gaps which exist between them. There are notable contrasts between the historic town of Farnham and the more modern development of the other main centres of Camberley, Farnborough, Fleet and Aldershot. The development of the area has historically owed much to the military presence, with extensive Ministry of Defence land and facilities providing the home to the British Army and Farnborough Aerodrome being the birthplace of aviation.

2.2 The study area has a population of over 300,000 people. The five main towns all have populations of over 30,000 and provide many facilities in terms of retail, leisure and service attractions. Although Farnborough is the largest town there is no one dominant town centre to serve the study area, and consequently no one centre provides the full range of attractions for the catchment area

b) The Economy

2.3 The Blackwater Valley Sub-Regional Study estimated that about 142,000 people are employed in the study area, which provides a nucleus for both high-technology research and a cluster of aerospace and high technology industries. The workforce within the Blackwater Valley is made up of a comparatively large proportion of knowledge-based workers and those in higher paid occupations. Earning levels are between 16-28% higher than in the South East region average.

2.4 The Blackwater Valley has an unusually high dependence on defence related employment, but the largest employment sectors are for `other business services' (27%) and `distribution' (25%).

2.5 Between 1995 and 2000 employment in the Blackwater Valley grew from 112,000 to 142,000 employees, a rise of 26%. Growth was most significant in business services, computing and related activities, manufacturing of other transport equipment (including aerospace), manufacturing of radio and telecommunications equipment, research and development, office machinery and computers and electrical machinery and other apparatus. During the same period there has been a major decline in the defence and public administration sector, financial and insurance services and in more traditional manufacturing activities. Since 2000, some of these growth sectors have been hit by global factors and a number of high profile businesses in the aerospace related and telecommunications sectors have moved out of the area or have rationalised.

2.6 Farnborough and Camberley are the main employment centres with Farnborough being a centre for aerospace and defence-related employment whilst Camberley's base is broader and includes high technology manufacturing, aerospace and telecommunications. Manufacturing employment provides significant jobs in Aldershot and Farnham, but has relatively low levels in the other centres.

c) Transport

2.7 The Blackwater Valley is an area with a highly complex pattern of travel demands with about half of the resident workforce out-commuting to a range of destinations including London, Heathrow Airport, Guildford, Woking and Reading. Over half of the jobs available within the Blackwater Valley area are dependent upon in-commuting. With projected growth of 56,000 jobs (23%) in the area between 2001 and 2016 but only a projected growth in the resident workforce of 30,000 (11%) in the same period, there could be significantly more pressure placed on the transport network, if the local economy is to remain buoyant. What is currently an overall job deficit against resident workforce is expected to reverse by 2016 with about 10,000 more jobs available in the area to resident workforce. This will either lead to further growth in labour shortages, an increase in people's willingness to in-commute ever longer distances or increase pressure on businesses to locate out of the area. (The Network has still to examine the 2001 Census for travel to work data).

2.8 The existing road network exhibits good road links to London, Heathrow and Gatwick Airports and to other important locations such as Guildford and Bracknell. Peak time congestion is one of the a major problems facing the area.

2.9 There is a reasonably extensive rail network within the study area and Fleet and Farnborough in particular have reasonably fast, frequent and well used services to London and Basingstoke. Aldershot, Farnham and Camberley all have rail stations which have variable quality of services to London and other destinations beyond the study area, including Gatwick Airport. However these lines are poorly integrated and serve largely long-distance trips to and from the Blackwater Valley, and for the most part do not provide local journeys between the main towns in the study area. The network has failed to adapt to the changes in land use and commuting habits of local people as these have changed over the last 50 years. The bus network connects the main towns but a number of services have been modified or reduced in recent years.

2.10 There have been few major rail network improvements over recent years have come to nothing. Most recently the Blackwater Valley Mass Transit Study, which investigated a range of options for mass transit systems connecting the major towns in the study area has fallen well short of the Government's current criteria for economic viability.

d) Housing Market.

2.11 The study area is characterised by a high proportion of detached houses, high ownership rates well above national average and large residential areas with an established high quality environment. Average house prices are in most parts of the study area much higher than the regional average, the exception being within Rushmoor Borough. Nevertheless the significant commuting out-flows reflect the relative price advantage that area has over many locations closer to London. There is huge community resistance to higher density housing developments in established residential environments.

2.12 The provision of an adequate supply of affordable housing is seen as a key to providing an adequate labour supply within the study area. Housing Needs Studies indicate that the annual need for affordable housing exceeds the annual housing requirements. Housing Capacity Studies have not so far identified significant sources of new land supply, other than the release of Army land for the Aldershot Urban Extension, arising from Project Connaught. The Sub-Regional Study looked at land release options but outward extension of urban areas is heavily constrained by the existence of Sites of Special Scientific Interest and proposed Special Protection Areas, which forms a tight girdle of nature conservation land on the increasingly pressured heathland habitats in the area. The presence of the British Army, with its need for extensive open areas of training land, has been a major factor in the retention of heathland which has now become an increasingly rare habitat. In view of these constraints there will be a need to both promote and manage higher density residential development within the exiting built up areas.

e) Countryside

2.13 The urban areas of the Blackwater Valley are set in a largely rural setting comprising an undulating rural landscape with grassland paddocks, farmland, mixed woodland, and extensive areas of wooded heath and heathland. Farming activity is becoming a marginal activity and initiatives are required to secure the future of farming businesses in the area. The environmental quality of these rural surroundings are recognised in the extent of planning, landscape, cultural heritage and nature conservation designations. These include over 400 ha (1,000 acres) of land designated as an Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty (AONB), 26 Sites of Special Scientific Interest, and one Area of Great Landscape Value. The Thames Basin Heaths proposed Special Protection Area has been identified of particular environmental value for birds, and is of international importance. A significant proportion of existing urban areas within the study area are close to these protected habitats and have constrained the acceptability of a number of potential urban development sites and urban extensions for housing development. Potential for housing development identified through urban capacity studies have not taken account of the in-combination impacts on heathland habitats, and the full impact exerted by the proposed Special Protection Areas on future housing growth has not been identified.

Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats

A full analysis is set out in the sub-regional study (section 4). In summary:

a) Strengths.

2.14 The strengths of the Blackwater Valley area focus on its reasonably vibrant high value added economy, its nucleus of high technology research and development functions and cluster of aerospace and defence-related industries. The area is still regarded as a good location for businesses with good access to international markets. Heathrow and Gatwick are accessible and Farnborough has its own developing business aviation role. There are generally good strategic road and rail connections to London. There is a highly skilled professional and managerial workforce backed up by high quality educational services. The residential environment is much sought after and extensive areas of open space add to the quality of life for residents.

b) Weaknesses

2.15 Local transport is a serious weakness because of the poor integration of the local rail network, the high level of commuting and dispersed travel patterns which stem from the lack of a single dominant town in the study area and peak period road congestion. Labour shortages, particularly at medium and low skill levels allied to a serious lack of affordable and key worker housing are constraints to economic growth and delivery of essential services to support the economy. Enlargement of the European Union is likely to result in an influx of immigrant labour. This may impact favourably on labour and skill shortages, but this is difficult to quantify. It will also have an impact on the scale of housing need. The gap between average incomes and average house prices is high. There is a major over supply of offices but shortage of manufacturing space in the area.

c) Opportunities

2.16 There are some opportunities for economic growth focussed on further development of high technology, knowledge based industries, development of existing skills base and development of the business aviation sector at Farnborough. Ministry of Defence land release at Aldershot provides the only major brownfield release for housing and other uses which should promote a more sustainable community at Aldershot.

d) Threats

2.17 Continued economic prosperity is expected to be under a number of threats. Projections of future job creation and increased dependency on in-commuting to sustain the economy of the area suggest that the limitation of the existing transport system to serve the Blackwater Valley area will increasingly affect the mobility of residents and businesses in the local area. Prospects for major network improvements to the local rail network and uncertain prospects for mass transit to serve the area raise concern about the likelihood of significant step changes in transport network improvements to support sustained economic growth. Traffic congestion is likely to worsen significantly over the next 20 years, particularly flows of traffic from south Hampshire, assuming that conditions exist for the economy to continue flourishing. However the lack of affordable and key worker housing is likely to grow, as affordable housing provision will be hindered by increased dependence upon smaller urban capacity sites, lack of opportunities for major urban extensions and funding shortfalls. If labour market shortages worsen, businesses may continue the apparent drift westwards and away from the area (NE Hants/W Surrey Action Plan).

3. A CO-ORDINATED SUB-REGION

Core Problems to be Addressed

Most problems faced by the Blackwater Valley area are inter-linked, but are set out under the following headings for the purpose of this report.

a) Balancing Housing and Employment Markets

3.1 There are issues to be addressed in terms of an imbalance in the housing market, with a need to provide more smaller and affordable housing, including those for key workers in the local economy. The Atkins/Ancer SPA Sub-Regional study proposed concentrations of higher density development in and around the main town centres and particularly around public transport nodes. It also suggested that opportunities to balance housing provision to needs should be positively promoted.

3.2 Opportunities for large urban extensions are limited mainly because of the international and national nature conservation designations. Only the release of military land to form the Aldershot Urban Extension provides a major development opportunity for new homes, a significant proportion of which should be affordable. The Atkins/Ancer SPA Sub-Regional study proposed concentrations of higher density development in and around the main town centres and particularly around public transport nodes.

3.3 Current projections of employment growth and labour shortages also suggest an imbalance between employment and housing. There is a considerable oversupply of offices within the Blackwater Valley towns, and a large stock of vacant offices. A more sustainable balance between housing provision and employment is required for the longer term and a planned conversion of underused employment land to housing would address some of the current imbalance. However this needs to be planned to avoid the loss of prime business sites, which the proposed change to PPG3 (paragraph 42a) is seen to be encouraging. Any planned transfer of employment land to housing needs to be tempered with initiatives to promote more land availability for manufacturing industry which suffers from a land and premises shortage. This particularly applies to smaller scale, high technology/high added value manufacturing businesses.

b) Transport and Infrastructure to Deliver Economic Growth

3.4 The Government's response to the Blackwater Valley Mass Transit Study has indicated that mass transit solutions for the area are not financially viable now or in the foreseeable future. The Sub-Regional Study suggests that the only way to make mass transit potentially viable is to concentrate housing developments and mixed use developments, including housing, in central locations within the five main towns and particularly within the north-south axis through the valley (Camberley-Farnborough-Aldershot-Farnham). There is an unresolved issue here as to whether the scale of higher density residential development which could be accommodated within the five main towns would, in any event, change the economics of supporting a mass transit system in the longer term.

3.5 Policy initiatives aimed at making the area more sustainable in the longer term, through rebalancing housing and employment may have some impact in reducing the projected increase of in-commuting into the area. Delivery of some economic growth may be achieved through non-land use measures. However, it is difficult to see how sustainable economic growth will be delivered without some significant step changes in transport networks serving travel movements, particularly within the study area.

c) The Role and Character of the Five Main Blackwater Valley Towns

3.6 The lack of a dominant town centre leads to extensive travel, both within and outside the study area, as people seek to meet a range of employment, leisure and retail needs which they cannot obtain in the five main towns or smaller settlements within the valley. There is also a concern that the five main towns are stagnating and that attracting major new investment into enhancing town centres is proving increasingly difficult, partly because of the improvements achieved at higher order centres such as Reading and Basingstoke, but also because the centres are perceived to be in competition with each other. The sub regional study suggested that a longer term strategy should consider the potential for promoting a dominant centre which could provide a greater range of facilities and create a more sustainable heart to the valley area. Such a dominant centre would also add some critical mass of population to lend long term support for potential mass transit options. The sub-regional study suggested exploring the scope for developing Aldershot and/or Farnborough for higher order functions. If the idea of pursuing a dominant centre were to be followed, it would be essential to bring forward the infrastructure solutions early, to attract development to the best locations.

3.7 Each of the five main settlements displays distinct characteristics. Farnborough is the largest urban area with a population of some 51,000. It has an extensive town centre area and large areas of edge-of-centre retail parks. Aldershot and Camberley owe much of their existence to military presence and like Fleet have a late Victorian/Edwardian flavour. Fleet town centre has seen a renaissance in recent years. Farnham is one of the finest historic towns in the South-east, with a wealth of Listed Buildings, an ancient castle, a range of specialist shops and businesses and extensive semi-rural residential areas, particularly south of the town centre.

3.8 Incremental and uncoordinated policy initiatives and developments, including transport developments, could damage the special characteristics of the various settlements. Whilst the Blackwater Valley Network of local authorities have agreed to look at the future role of the five main town centres and are undertaking health checks for vitality and viability, there are issues as to whether it is feasible or desirable to change the role of any of the five main towns to any significant degree over the next 20 years or so. The towns do currently operate in synergy and are attuned to their local markets. Positive policies should therefore be identified to help develop complementary roles for each of the town centres, building on their respective strengths and characters and incorporating policies for mixed use development to intensify residential development and promote sustainable growth.

d) The Role and Character of the Countryside Areas

3.9 The countryside areas between settlements act as important green lungs, prevent settlements from merging and ensure they maintain their diversity. Many of these countryside areas, but by no means all, contain extensive areas of internationally and nationally important areas of nature conservation. These areas need to be understood and examined comprehensively at a regional and sub-regional level before the full implications of the different growth scenarios can be identified.

e) Ministry of Defence Land Releases.

3.10 Achieving a long term sustainable pattern of development should be the driver of MOD land releases. However, in practice the incremental nature of Ministry of Defence land releases over many years is at odds with the need to plan for sustainable communities in the Blackwater Valley. The Defence Training Review has caused, and continues to cause, considerable uncertainty. It is understood that whilst the Ministry of Defence is consolidating a number of MOD establishments it is also seeking to maximise opportunities to relocate much of the Army out of the South East. Project Connaught has given rise to the release of land at Aldershot, and there is also uncertainty over other Ministry land in and around the Blackwater Valley including the Princess Royal Barracks at Deepcut. In addition, it is now understood that a major area of MOD land at Bordon Camp to the south of the study area is expected to be released by 2008 with potential for between 3,000 and 8,000 new homes and possibly more. To the north of the study area, the establishment at Arborfield is also to be released.

3.11 Ministry of Defence plans for release of land in and around the area needs to be integrated into the process of planning for sustainable communities. As MOD land has often been located away from the larger towns, the release of MOD land is often not well linked to the availability of good public transport infrastructure. There is particular concern about the potential effects of the possible release of MOD land at Whitehill/Bordon. Any major development would have to be accommodated by a robust set of measures and proposals that should make it as sustainable as possible. There are concerns that such development will add to north bound commuting flows and increase congestion on the road network within the Blackwater Valley.

f) Maintaining the Quality of Life

3.12 There are strong community perceptions that the quality of life is under threat and that established residential environments in particular are subject to change pressures which for many existing residents are unwelcome. Attractive environments are also a strong selling point for businesses. Maintaining quality of life must be a central theme for policies for the Blackwater Valley.

g) Co-ordinating Policy Making Across Administrative Boundaries.

3.13 The Blackwater Valley area falls within nine local authority areas, although only the administrative area of Rushmoor Borough Council is wholly contained within the valley. Nevertheless there is a range of local plans, local transport plans, emerging community strategies, housing strategies and plans and strategies produced by the authorities and other public bodies which affect part or all of the study area. The Blackwater Valley Network of local authorities was formed to help co-ordinate policy making across these boundaries, and the case for joint working, recognised in RPG9, remains just as necessary now.

BLACKWATER VALLEY SUB-REGIONAL POLICY

4.1 This section provides a commentary on the scenario work carried out by Atkins/Ancer Spa including the implications of each of the three scenarios set out in the Sub-Regional Study, together with a fourth scenario considering the possible implications of growth above these levels as requested by SEERA.

4.2 The opportunity is taken to review the work carried out by Atkins/Ancer Spa particularly in relation to the transport implications and the potential impact on the landscape and the environment.

Scenario 1: Limited Intervention

4.3 This scenario is based on an assumption that there would be no major change in planning and transportation policies. There would be no pro-active response to addressing development demand, housing shortages and transport congestion as this scenario is based on the premise that employment development opportunities should be regarded favourably.

4.4 Furthermore it would be based on an approach which assumed that the economic benefits of growth would, in the main, outweigh possible adverse impacts on the labour market, housing, transport infrastructure and the environment.

However, this scenario does not really optimise economic growth as required in RPG9.

Consultation response:

4.5 Some consultation responses indicated a preference for elements of scenario 1 in combination with other scenarios, including Hampshire County Council and Surrey Heath Borough Council.

4.6 What the area would look like in 2026?

· Additional 30,000 houses provided by 2031, largely through focus on urban concentration in major centres, infilling in villages and windfall development.

· Loss of major employers in the aerospace and defence sector & relocation of 50% of associated high technology supply industries between 2007 and 2016. Post 2016 gradual increase in lower grade industries.

· Additional 12,000 jobs by 2031.

· Increase in road congestion and deterioration of existing infrastructure unless radical measures such as the promotion of a mass transit system and demand management have been introduced.

Scenario 2: Active Discouragement of Growth

4.7 Scenario 2 is based on the pursuit of development restraint policies. It is characterised by very low rates of development of employment land, and discouragement of intensification of development on the grounds of it's impact on existing infrastructure and the environment.

Consultation response:

4.8 None of the local authorities in the Blackwater Valley Network cited a preference for this scenario. However, several environmental organisations and members of the public indicated that any strategy for the area should be based on this scenario, or elements of it.

4.9 What the area would look like in 2026?

· Additional 15,000 houses provided by 2031, largely through infilling in major urban settlements.

· Loss of between 22,000-28,000 jobs by 2031 due to restrictive planning policies, constraints on business expansion and loss of major employers.

· Increased urban dereliction requiring regeneration.

· Protection of environmental designations.

· No major improvement to retail and leisure facilities.

· A continuing increase in peak period traffic congestion.

Scenario 3: Active adaptation to growth and change

4.10 This scenario would focus on achieving the full combination of high environmental quality for the area, preserving the area's key wealth generators, achieving a balanced economy and maintenance of high prosperity levels, meeting housing objectives, alleviating congestion through public transport investment and reducing pressure of the labour market.

4.11 Whilst the study broadly identifies locations for economic growth it falls short of taking positive measures to relieve problems associated with labour supply, by either the provision of more housing or by the improvement of public transport. There are concerns from the Network about the statistical validity of the TEMPRO projections and therefore identify the need for additional technical work to test the robustness of the data and update it using 2001 Census data.

Consultation response:

4.12 Although only one local authority on the Network endorsed scenario 3, four other local authorities endorsed either a modified version of scenario 3, or elements of this scenario in combination with elements of other scenarios, as the preferred strategic approach. Almost half of all other responses received on the Atkins study endorsed scenario 3 either as an individual option or in combination with elements of other scenarios.

4.13 What the area would look like in 2026?

· Additional 37,000 houses provided by 2031, through urban extensions to major settlements or possibly development of a new settlement.

· Creation of additional 68,000 jobs by 2031.

· Consolidation of larger scale and range of retail and leisure facilities in specific locations.

· More intensive use of existing land and property with development being more highly concentrated in strategic locations.

· Higher increases in road congestion and deterioration of existing infrastructure unless radical measures such as the promotion of a mass transit system and demand management have been introduced.

Scenario 4: Higher growth assuming a 50% increase in housebuilding compared with Scenario 1

4.14 SEERA has asked for this scenario to be based on a higher level of growth than those set out in the Blackwater Valley Sub-Regional Study. The housing side of this option assumes an increase of 50% in the rate of house building across the study area as a whole for the period 2006 to 2026 (compared with the baseline of 30,000 houses set out in Scenario 1), which amounts to a total of 45,000 houses. This scenario of 50% increase is set out to test whether further economic growth can be accommodated in the sub-regional area as stated in RPG9 and on the understanding that the ODPM wishes to test the impact of higher levels of growth. In this respect it is consistent with scenarios tested in other relevant sub-regions including the Western Corridor. However, it must be stressed that in the absence of any work having been undertaken to explore or test this scenario the comments below can only be in the form of a cursory discussion of some of the possible implications and issues which would need to be considered further.

4.15 This scenario is discussed in relation to possible implications for the economy and employment, transport and infrastructure, and social environmental and housing considerations.

Economy and Employment Land

4.16 It is questionable as to the spatial implications of this level of growth in relation to the economy and employment land provision. As set out earlier in this report, current projections of employment growth and labour shortages suggest an imbalance between employment and housing in the Blackwater Valley. Policies which would allow the conversion of underused employment land to housing would address the current imbalance, however under this scenario of a higher level of housing growth it is questionable whether this would be the most appropriate long term strategy. It may be more sustainable to seek to retain existing employment land which may be required in conjunction with higher levels of housing growth. This could also lead to less pressure on the environment in terms of the need for greenfield land releases. In addition over the next 20 years there may be changes in working practices which could affect economic activity rates, for example tightening of local labour markets may force employers to make even greater efforts to draw more of the resident population into work, and the forecast of problems with many peoples pension schemes may force them to work until they are older.

4.17 The effects of this scenario in terms of helping to optimise economic growth, advocated in RPG9 is unclear. The higher level of housing growth may address problems of labour market shortages in the area, it would be likely to assist affordable housing provision including `key worker housing' and could address skills shortages through investment in education and training. However, the transport implications in respect of the attractiveness of the area as a location for business is uncertain. As described below the increase in car usage associated with this scale of development would be likely to add to current peak period congestion problems and without radical measures to address this issue businesses may take the decision to relocate away from the Blackwater Valley.

Transport

4.18 The Sub-Regional Study suggests that the only way to make mass transit potentially viable is to concentrate housing and mixed use developments in central locations within the five main towns and particularly within the north-south axis through the Blackwater valley (Farnham-Aldershot-Farnborough-Camberley). The scale of development involved in this scenario makes an increasingly attractive case for a mass transit system. However, given even optimistic predictions of modal shift (and the current modal split) there would still be a large increase in car usage. Without radical intervention and an innovative approach to public transport provision, this would be likely to add to current peak period congestion problems. In this respect the introduction of demand management measures and the identification and safeguarding of public transport corridors are very likely to be pre requisites of this high growth scenario in order to limit the environmental impact of vehicle traffic.

Social, Environmental and Housing

4.19 The implications of this scenario will be affected by a range of factors which would include assumptions made in housing capacity studies for the urban areas in the Blackwater Valley over the period to 2026, assumptions about possible future housing density and mix on development sites, the implications of spatial strategy options for accommodating growth taking capacity studies into account, and factors relating to the future provision of affordable housing including funding mechanisms. Taking into account comments earlier in this report which indicate the absence so far of significant sources of new land supply, other than the release of Army land for the Aldershot Urban Extension, and the scale of development in this scenario (amounting to an additional 13,000 dwellings over and above Scenario 3 in the Sub-Regional Study), it is likely that this would lead to significant land needing to be identified on greenfield sites to accommodate the level of housing envisaged. This would be extremely difficult to accommodate either as urban extensions or possibly in the form of a new settlement or settlements given the environmental and nature conservation constraints surrounding much of the urban areas.

4.20 Under this scenario pro-active measures would be possible to partly tackle a whole range of social issues including affordable housing, skills shortages and infrastructure requirements which could be accommodated in locations in close proximity to existing centres. However, there is serous concern that the most advantageous form of development in terms of maximising the potential for addressing social issues and for a successful mass transit system would also be likely to cause significant harm to proposed Special Protection Areas and other environmental designations within the Blackwater Valley.

4.21 The urban areas of the Blackwater Valley are set in a predominantly rural setting, comprising an undulating rural landscape. The environmental quality of the area is recognised in the extent of planning, landscape, cultural heritage and nature conservation designations, some of which are of national and international importance. Development of the scale envisaged in this scenario, concentrating on locations within the north-south axis through the Blackwater Valley, would inevitably involve urban extensions into land identified as `Strategic Gaps' which have particular importance in ensuring that existing settlements maintain their character and diversity and are in place to prevent distinct urban areas from merging. Development may also harm or seriously compromise the integrity of other designations including Sites of Importance for Nature Conservation, the Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty (AONB), and the Thames Basin Heath proposed Special Protection Area for birds, which is of international importance.

4.22 What the area would look like in 2026?

· Additional 45,000 houses provided by 2026, through urban extensions to major settlements or possibly development of a new settlement.

· Higher density development in urban areas through the use of previously developed land.

· Uncertainty over the effects of this scenario in terms of optimising economic growth and in terms of the spatial implications for employment land provision.

· Serious congestion is likely to worsen significantly over a large part of the day. Radical intervention is likely to be needed, including demand management measures, with priority given to developing a mass transit system.

· Social issues such as affordable and key worker housing and skills shortages can be addressed more effectively.

· The pattern of development which would maximise opportunities for a mass transit system would harm designated Strategic Gaps to the detriment of the character and identity of individual settlements and the quality of life for local residents.

· The level of housing growth would seriously threaten environmental designations including Sites of Importance for Nature Conservation and the Thames Basin Heath proposed Special Protection Area for birds, which is of international importance.

Development Scenarios - Consideration of Transport and Mass Transit in the Blackwater Valley Area

4.23 With development comes the opportunity to create demand catchment areas that allow relatively high levels of public transport to be operated on a economic basis. This leads to more sustainable levels of modal share with typically less dependence on the private car. The Blackwater Valley Mass Transit Study, 2002, was prepared for the Blackwater Valley Network by Steer Davies Gleave. It examined the opportunities for a tram and/or bus based mass transit in this area in broad terms and recommended that further studies should be undertaken with different scenarios for additional routes serving potential development sites. It also recommended a series of short, medium and longer term measures to promote a high quality public transport system with a view to creating the right conditions for mass transit in the longer term.

4.24 Both the Mass Transit Study and the Sub-Regional Study were completed at about the same time with liaison between the respective consultants, with the Sub-Regional Study incorporating the main conclusions arising from the Mass Transit Study. In taking a fresh look at the transport implications of the three development scenarios set out in the Sub-Regional Study together with new Scenario 4, the following broad conclusions may be drawn. These comments are made following reference to the Mass Transit Study, however a more robust examination would be needed to confirm the views expressed.

4.25 In scenario 1 the Sub-Regional Study was cautious about the potential for mass transit and the ability to adequately develop other integrated transport measures. However such housing levels might establish a basis for further consideration of the case for a largely tram based mass transit system but this would be subject to the assumptions outlined below..

4.26 In scenario 2, options for improvement s are limited and it is unlikely that a mass transit scheme would be viable. Public transport would remain bus based with potential for some sections of guided bus. A heavy reliance on car travel would remain under this scenario..

4.27 Scenario 3 is not all that different to scenario 1 in terms of actual housing growth figures. Opportunities for mass transit may be marginally improved relative to Scenario 1, in terms of incorporating part of the rail network, which could tend to lead to earlier implementation rather than making a significant difference to the quality of mass transit system that could be provided. However, even in Scenario 3 implementation of such a system would be unlikely to take place much before the end of the plan period being considered, when the proposed developments will have been largely completed.

4.28 Scenario 4 makes an increasingly strong case for further consideration of a mass transit system, with improved potential for a street based tram system, which could potentially be commenced at an earlier stage dependent upon the rate of development.

4.29 With all these scenarios there would also be a large increase in car usage. Without radical intervention this would be likely to add to current peak period congestion problems.

4.30 Many broad assumptions have been assumed in reaching the above conclusions. Hence, care should be taken in assuming all the above is achievable. Significantly more detailed levels of modelling would be needed to give greater certainty. Assumptions made include:

· That all mass transit route options are feasible.

· That the Government's economic criteria for the mass transit system could be met and hence financial support secured from central government and the private sector at an early stage, in addition to the funding available from development. There must be a large degree of uncertainty in this being achieved given the Secretary of State's response to the Thames Valley Multi Modal Study.

· That links are made to all new development sites.

· That a significant change in the mode share from car to other modes would be achievable.

· Route choices and development are focused on the Atkins Acer Study (north - south) `axis of growth'.

4.31 The form and location of development is also critical in establishing the right conditions to promote a mass transit system - for example, density and continuity of development, and proximity to main public transport corridors are all important factors that will determine the system's viability. However, siting development along a single potential transport corridor may not be compatible with a strategy that enhances town centres, which are offset from the main arterial routes and may conflict with preservation of important gaps between towns.

4.32 For any mass transit system to be effective it would be likely to need on-going financial support and be accompanied by demand management measures.

Shortcomings of the Sub-Regional Study from a landscape / environment perspective.

4.33 The extensive areas of rare heathland which abut much of the larger urban areas within the valley are referred to earlier in this report. None of the growth scenarios have attempted to include an analysis of how the existence of these internationally important areas might constrain housing growth or conversely how they might be affected by increased levels of housing. There is a need to examine these impacts at a regional and sub-regional level. Relying upon local assessments as part of producing local development frameworks or in response to major planning applications is inadequate.

4.34 A thorough methodology to assess impact on landscape character is also required.

This needs to be agreed and worked up by the local authorities. This is essential in order to make accurate judgements of the tolerance to change and sensitivity issues relating to the landscape. A draft proposed methodology for assessing the impact on Landscape Sensitivity and tolerance to change is attached to this report, to give a flavour of the complexity and number of inter related issues.

4.35 Further analysis of the rural economy in the study area is required. Current land management issues need to be explored and examined in relation to viability, threats and opportunities for the future, particularly as there is going to be increased pressure on the rural urban fringe and greenfield sites. At this stage only a broad overview of the various growth scenario implications on the landscape and environment can be made. A thorough analysis is required to make more fully informed decisions on the future of the Blackwater Valley.

4.36 In Scenario 1 the major threat to the landscape is that it is based on an assumption that economic benefits outweigh possible adverse impacts on the environment. The integrity of the Landscape Character Areas in the region may be threatened because this scenario infers that there is no co-ordinated spatial land use vision for the region and that aspects of landscape sensitivity and tolerance to change will not be considered. These are considered vital in making informed decisions about future land use and management. Specific issues such as the future management and use of the former commercial forestry plantations which typify the landscape may be overlooked. It is presumed that the nature conservation designations would remain but the Strategic Gaps may be eroded from housing and economic pressures, thereby reducing the quality, local distinctiveness and intactness of the landscape.

4.37 Scenario 2 implies that the `status quo' is maintained and further development resisted. This offers the likelihood of strong environmental protection policy. It is unclear just how much the projected economic and social changes would impact on the landscape and environment.

4.38. The Sub-Regional Study refers to Scenario 3 as `reflecting approval broadly advocated by RPG9 towards optimising economic growth'. Reference is made to `maintaining environmental quality'. This is ambiguous and does not necessarily infer cross compliance with other government guidance such as in draft PPS 7 and the Rural White Paper, which both express the need to take account of Landscape Character in planning policy. Even with major redevelopment within the town centre there may be a significant impact on the adjoining character of the countryside. Further understanding of the level of impact of this scenario in terms of the implications for the landscape and environment. The rural urban fringe character which accounts for a large proportion of the study area will be changed, although it is recognised that this can lead to positive benefits.

4.39. The commentary on the work carried out by Atkins/Ancer Spa reflects their approach which quantifies housing numbers for each scenario but does not quantify employment land and infrastructure requirements. The scenarios have not been fully analysed and this shows in the lack of consensus locally in any one direction. More work is required to consider these in more detail. However it is important to stress that the housing numbers led approach is too simplistic an approach for the area and that which ever scenario is considered it is essential to integrate the planning and resourcing of housing, employment sites and social and transport infrastructure.

5. CONCLUSION

5.1 The distinctiveness of the Blackwater Valley focuses on the polycentric nature of the five main settlements within a relatively compact area, a settlement pattern which gives rise to concerns about longer term sustainability. Commuting flows are complex and public transport is fragmented. A major step change in the level of public transport provision serving the area would need to accompany large scale developments, with financial support from central government and the private sector. There is a significant degree of uncertainty that this would be achieved. Land would need to be safeguarded for public transport corridors. The area has a distinct spatial context with extensive areas of land with environmental designations, particularly proposed Special Protection Areas which restrict outward growth and extensive areas of MOD land. However it is the need for the nine local authorities and their partners to work together on planning, transport, housing and environmental matters across administrative boundaries which is particularly important. The nature of the core problems affecting the Blackwater Valley may be mirrored elsewhere, but can only be understood by appreciating the spatial context of the study area.

5.2 A number of growth scenarios have been looked at by the Blackwater Valley Network. However there is no clear consensus on a way forward, as there are a number of gaps in the technical work undertaken so far. Prior to policy conclusions being made to inform the South East Plan, there are a number of outstanding pieces of work which should be undertaken, if time and resources permit.

5.3 The Blackwater Valley Network has resolved to :

a) devise a coherent strategic vision for the valley as a basis for continued collaboration and to inform future planning;

b) re-look at household and population projections underpinning the sub-regional study;

c) develop a realistic joint strategy for improving public transport in the valley, focusing on strategic transport solutions and initiatives which are deliverable;

d) in consultation with SEERA, to study the five main towns to see if initiatives to develop more complementary roles are required;

e) develop a more consistent approach towards the provision of affordable housing, including possible joint funding initiatives;

f) look at non land use issues, such a skills shortages with relevant partner organisations.

5.4 The Blackwater Valley Authorities are committed to producing their own Local Development Frameworks. There remains the possibility of revisiting this in future to see whether joint local development documents would be a workable way forward once the authorities have experience of the new planning system. At present the Network intends to assist its member authorities by producing a long term vision and strategy for the Blackwater Valley which will help shape local development frameworks.

5.5 In addition to the above, the Network has identified the following issues which require further examination before policy conclusions are reached in the preparation of the South East Plan:

a) The potential impact of different housing growth scenarios on the integrity of the proposed Special Protection Areas which abut the hard edge of considerable lengths of settlements in the Blackwater Valley need to be understood and analysed at sub-regional level, if not regional level.

b) Addressing the issue of the polycentric nature of the five main settlements within a relatively compact area where there is a lack of a dominant town centre leading to a concern over possible future stagnation and the increasing difficulty of attracting major new investments. This is an issue of wider importance in view of the improvements achieved at higher order centres such as Reading and Basingstoke and also because the centres are perceived to be in competition with each other.

c) Thorough examination of the impact of housing growth scenarios on landscape character within the valley also would be required.

d) There is also a strong case for the release of Ministry of Defence land to be integrated into the process of planning for sustainable communities. The incremental `alienation' of MOD land is at odds with government objectives for planning long term sustainable communities and SEERA should address this issue with the ODPM.

5.6 There is very positive support for continued joint working between the authorities and other partner organisations, and for maintaining the identity of the Blackwater Valley. It is debatable whether the Blackwater Valley should be given sub-regional recognition in the South East Plan or whether it should be identified within the wider Western corridor but with its own identity protected and established joint working arrangements between the authorities and other partner organisations continuing. In any case, consideration of the regional policy issues set out in paragraph 5.5 above will assist the Blackwater Valley area address its specific issues in order to bring forward a more sustainable future.

5.7 Two final conclusions are drawn. First is that there are serious potential consequences for the economies of the Blackwater Valley towns in respect of the gap between jobs and the resident workforce, and second, there are potential environmental/quality of life consequences for residents of the Blackwater Valley without a spatial land use vision. This justifies an holistic structured approach which harnesses potential benefits and mitigates potential threats to the sustainable future for the area.

APPENDIX 1

Proposed Methodology for Investigating the Impact of the various growth scenarios on Landscape Character



Integrated Landscape Character Assessment (description and evaluation of the study area): components

· Strategic and Local Plan information

· Landscape Character Areas/Types

· Land Management

· Perceptual

· Historic Environment

· Biodiversity & Designations

· Access and Recreation

Townscape Settlement Character Assessment

2



Inherent Landscape Sensitivity and Tolerance to Change Study

3



· Assessing the various growth scenarios on Landscape Character by analysing the impact on each component attribute. (Actual loss, perceptual and visual impact).

· Assessing the urban capacity and progression towards undertaking Urban Design Frameworks

4





Design and Mitigation Criteria

PROFESSIONAL ASSESSMENT OF THE OVERALL IMPACT OF EACH OF THE VARIOUS GROWTH SCENARIOS BASED ON THE ABOVE

Population of local authorities, 1971- 2001

APPENDIX 2

*Before 2001 West Berkshire was described as Newbury

Source: "Usual resident population" from the Census for 2001, 1991, and 1981. Please note that in 1971 local authority names and boundaries were different. The 1971 figures are "Population present in 1971" matched to the later local authority districts.

NB Different definitions in each census year may affect the figures to some extent. For example, Reading could be affected by different approaches to counting students.