Archived decisions
APPENDIX 2
NORTH HAMPSHIRE: AMOUNT AND BROAD LOCATION OF EMPLOYMENT DEVELOPMENT
Introduction
Technical work undertaken for the Western Corridor and Blackwater Valley Sub-region, of which North Hampshire in part, has concluded that there is no apparent need to identify further employment land looking at the sub-region as a whole, although there may be particular localities where there are reasons for allocating additional land as an exception to the general approach. That conclusion is based on doubts about the robustness of the forecasts of future economic and employment growth produced by SEERA, coupled with the trend in the sub-region for businesses to make more intensive use of employment land i.e. redundant employment land has been re-occupied by new firms who employ more people on the same site than the previous occupier.
Hampshire County Council officers have not yet been able to fully validate this analysis, nor the apparently conflicting evidence contained in research undertaken by SEEDA and the Centre for Economics and Business Research Limited.
Employment Land Supply and Demand
In order to help Hampshire County Council and the three North Hampshire District Councils to reach informed conclusions on the appropriate policy approach in the North Hampshire part of the Western Corridor and Blackwater Valley, County Council officers, with the assistance of economic consultants DTZ Pieda, have undertaken a separate analysis for this area. The analysis forecasts potential for significant economic growth, an increase in employment, higher productivity and a significant requirement for employment land in North Hampshire over the 20 years of the South East Plan (2006-2026).
Currently, there is around 190 hectares of land with planning permission or allocated for industrial and business development in Local Plans (excluding land held by individual firms for their own expansion). It is estimated that this could provide some 630,000 square metres of floorspace. Past experience is that a small proportion of sites are not developed for industrial/business purposes because they are not the right type of site for modern business needs, or are in the wrong location, or cannot be developed at an economic cost. A recent detailed assessment undertaken jointly by the Hampshire Economic Partnership and the County Council suggests that around 10 percent of currently allocated sites are unlikely to be developed for those reasons. On this basis, sites capable of providing some 560,000 square metres of floorspace are likely to be available and capable of being developed. Of this, around 40 percent is in the Basingstoke area and about 60 percent is in Hart and Rushmoor Districts.
DTZ Pieda prepared forecasts of employment growth and associated land requirements based on a range of economic growth and productivity scenarios. Of those scenarios, local authority officers and DTZ Pieda believe the most likely outcome is that economic growth will be in the range of 3.0-3.5 percent per annum in North Hampshire with productivity rising by between 2.3 and 2.7 percent per annum. By comparison, the area's current economic growth rate is estimated to be 3.4 percent per annum.
These `most likely' scenarios would require between 180,000 square metres (40 hectares) and 300,000 square metres (60 hectares) of employment space during the 20 years 2006-2026 in addition to the existing supply.
These forecast requirements are reasonably robust when compared to the recent rate of employment development. A continuation of the recent rate of development would require provision of about 1,400,000 square metres of floorspace over the next 20 years. The `most likely' scenarios outlined above would mean providing for 740,000-870,000 square metres of floorspace. The latter assume higher rates of productivity than in the past, and also assume that new business development will be at higher densities (reduced landscaping, less car parking and more multi-storey buildings) than in the past.
Spatial Distribution
There are several reasons for most of this employment land to be allocated at Basingstoke. Firstly, the existing supply of land for employment development is skewed towards the other two Districts, around 60 percent being in Hart and Rushmoor Districts. Secondly, Basingstoke is designated in the South East Plan as a Regional Transport Hub; such hubs are intended to be the locations for substantial development. Thirdly, concentrating new employment land allocations at Basingstoke would mirror that around 60 percent of the area's house building is proposed to be in Basingstoke and Deane Borough.
Proposed Advice
The conclusion of the above analysis is that North Hampshire appears to be one of those exceptions to the general approach in the Western Corridor and Blackwater Valley Sub-Region where additional employment land is likely to be required. It is recommended that between 40 and 60 hectares of employment land might be required in North Hampshire in addition to existing employment sites and that most of this should be allocated at Basingstoke.
Additional technical work is needed to confirm and refine that range; this will be undertaken early next year enabling further evidence to be presented at the time of public consultation on the South East Plan next summer.