Archived decisions

Item 11a

Culture and Communities PRC

The availability of demographic software/analysis tools at the Council and how this is currently used to help identify, and target services to, areas of deprivation and decline.

Demographic analysis

The County Council has access to two sets of population forecasts and projections prepared by the Environment Department. The data is also provided to Hampshire's district councils and the two City councils and a variety of public and private sector organisations.

The distinction between forecasts and projections is that forecasts represent a best estimate of the likely population in the short term given known changes: projections represent the best estimate of the population in the long-term given a set of assumptions that might, in the event, prove incorrect.

The results, together with explanatory notes, are posted on Hantsweb to enable the information to be used by the general public.

Small Area Population Forecasts

The Small Area Population Forecasts (SAPF) are very detailed short term population forecasts by single year of age and gender for each of the approximately 5,500 census output areas in the county, for a seven year forecasting period from the base year.

They forecast the population likely to result from net additions to (or decline in) the dwelling stock in the County, and also take account of fertility, mortality and net migration within the existing stock of dwellings.

Production of the forecasts at census output area level enables provides a building block to provide forecasts for user defined geographical areas.

Long Term Population Projections

The Long Term Population Projections are normally produced for a 20 year plus projection period, and at district council level only. The projections can be produced using different control assumptions to test the implications of various policy choices . The assumptions most frequently used for the HCC projections are future dwelling supply or the future level of net migration. The model also takes account of fertility and mortality.

A household projection module is an integral part of the model. In addition to producing household projections by type of household, the household formation rates are used as a means of projecting migration when a dwelling supply control is used, and as a means of projecting future dwellings requirements when a net migration control is used.

Social Indicators and Deprivation

Recent years have seen a number of exercises where statistical techniques have been used to combine information from a variety of sources to classify districts into `families' or `clusters'.

The first of these studies was carried out by the Office for National Statistics in 2003 using demographic, household composition, housing, socio-economic, employment and industrial sector data from the 2001 national census to devise an area classification. The classification (see Appendix 1) divides local authorities into one of a number of typologies: Hampshire's districts fall into four basic types, prospering smaller towns, new and growing towns, prospering Southern England and manufacturing towns.

The second, `Mosaic' has been compiled by Experian Ltd using around a total of 400 data variables, selected on the basis of their volume, quality, consistency and sustainability. Fifty four per cent of the data used to build Mosaic is sourced from the 2001 Census. The remaining 46 per cent includes data from the edited Electoral Roll, Experian Lifestyle Survey Information, and Consumer Credit Activity, alongside the Post Office Address File, Shareholders Register, House Price and Council Tax information and Office for National Statistics local area statistics. As with the ONS classification areas (in this case as small as post code areas) are divided in to a variety of typologies, in this case described in such terms as Grey Perspectives, Symbols of Success, Happy Families or Suburban Comfort. Different types of people can be identified within each group.

A third classification using 2001 Census data is branded `Acorn' from the commercial company CACI. The classification uses a similar categorisation to Mosaic, branding neighbourhoods as either thriving, expanding, rising, setting, aspiring or striving. The data aggregated at a district level reflects similar sort of area classification to that produced by the other two organisations.

Indices of Deprivation

A national index of deprivation was first produced in 2000 and updated in 2004. The 2004 Indices of Deprivation are seen as the leading nationwide indicator of deprivation.

The indices encompass seven domains: income; employment; health & disability; education, skills & training; barriers to housing & services; crime; and living environment. These seven domains are combined to form the overall Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD. Of the seven indices, six have a similar geographical pattern with high scores generally found in urban areas. Two, barriers to housing and services, tend to be the opposite with the highest levels of deprivation found in more rural areas.

Before the release of the Indices of Deprivation finding evidence of rural deprivation in Hampshire was not easy. The `Barriers to Housing and Services' domain in particular identifies deprivation in rural areas as it comprises both a measure of road distance to GP premises, a supermarket, a primary school and a post office; and a measure for difficulty of access to owner occupation, which tends to be a particular problem in rural areas, where house prices are often high.

Neighbourhood Statistics

The Office of National Statistics has begun to publish a wide range of data. Unfortunately the data sets are neither updated uniformly nor geographically consistent. Nevertheless there is a wide coverage of data ranging from access to services and community wellbeing, to income and lifestyles and work deprivation. Some of these data sets will be updated reasonably frequently and should, if definitions do not change too much, allow trends to be identified.

The use of the data

The data is used for a number of purposes.

The population estimate provide important evidence on the likely future demand for services. The Small Area Forecasts are aggregated in a number of different ways to give estimates of the school age population within defined school catchment areas. The data can also be used to explore the consequences on likely pupil numbers of changing those catchment boundaries (for example as a result of significant new development or changes in accessibility). The forecasts can also be used at the other end of the age range to illustrate how the population of an area is ageing and the impact that change might have for service provision and other matters.

The area classification data is currently not used as much as the population data. It does, however, enable the County to look behind the absolute numbers at the social and economic characteristics of an area. The Indices of Deprivation and Mosaic can, particularly in map form using GIS, effectively highlight specific neighbourhoods within districts and towns where deprivation is prevalent or where particular target groups might be concentrated. This data could help not only target services, but also influence the nature of community engagement and consultation (it is, however, a highly speculative enterprise to try to forecast households by social class at any geographic level accordingly it is not that easy to be proactive in anticipating areas of need). Moreover knowing that a cluster of areas are statistically similar will allow comparative inter-cluster or between-cluster analysis to validate the success and try to understand to failures of County Council plans, strategies and programmes.

For example, knowing that all four classifications highlight that the New Forest exhibits markedly different characteristics from the rest of the county, particularly its prosperous pensioners and that Havant is also strikingly different with its high incidence of council dwellings and blue collar workers might explain why certain outcomes are easier or more difficult to achieve.

In the past, when the Government fashion for distributing scarce resources was based on a bidding process, the Education and Social Services both used IoD and Mosaic material very effectively in securing funding for programmes in deprived areas. More recently Recreation and Heritage have used Mosaic in the targeted marketing of their services to the most appropriate groups and Children's Services are continuing to evaluate the application of Mosaic to help understand educational attainment.

The data has also been used quite successfully by local strategic partnerships, including the Hampshire Strategic Partnership and the Local Area Agreement Board, to focus action plans on specific areas of specific need or exhibiting particular characteristics.

Appendix 1

Appendix 2

Appendix 3

Appendix 4

Index of Multiple Deprivation 2004 - Hampshire Districts

District	Indices of Deprivation: Rank of average SOA score
Havant	137
Gosport	189
New Forest	286
Rushmoor	287
Eastleigh	311
Basingstoke and Deane	313
Test Valley	317
East Hampshire	328
Fareham	330
Winchester	338
Hart	354

Only Havant appears in the top half of the most deprived districts in England with Gosport just outside. Hart is shown to be the least deprived of all districts in England. Eight more of Hampshire's districts fall within the least deprived quartile of districts in England.

Fourteen of the twenty areas are all within wards in the Leigh Park area of Havant (Warren Park, Barncroft, Bondfields and Battins).

Gosport (2), New Forest (1), Rushmoor (1) and Hart Plain in Havant (2) also have pockets of deprivation that are amongst the twenty percent most deprived areas in the country.

Looking at each of the seven domains provides a more focussed picture of deprivation in the County.

Outside of Havant, which has 41 entries in the seven top-ten domain listings, Gosport is the next most deprived district with 11 entries. Deprivation in the form of barriers to housing and services is the only domain that does not feature as an urban issue. The areas featured in the top ten of this domain are mostly within rural wards where essential services are located long distances away from many residents, and where affordable housing is in limited supply.

The areas that rank most highly on the barriers to housing and services index are in the rural parts of New Forest, Hart, Test Valley, Basingstoke & Deane and East Hampshire. Test Valley has the most entries in this list (three), however the most deprived area in the county is the ward of Downlands & Forest in the New Forest, and is the 74^th (out of 32,500) most deprived area in England on this domain of deprivation. There are four other areas in the county that are within the 1% most deprived areas in the country on this measure: one in the New Forest, one area in Hart and two areas in Test Valley.