Archived decisions

Review how HCC is preparing as a council for the demographic time bomb - problems and opportunities re over 65s?

Strengths

· Real challenge for which longer term planning and preparation would be wise.

· May be opportunities to be identified as well as challenges

Weaknesses

· Most facts are well known, at least in broader terms.

· Work may have been undertaken, or may be in progress.

Opportunities

Opportunities may exist for creative thinking, innovative solutions and opportunities for investment.

Threats

Would need to be carefully scoped and structured.

Summary and selection criteria

· The remit of the committee includes a responsibility to consider economic development and developing sustainable communities, but it is not clear that it has a particular remit to look at the ability of HCC to sustain its service provision, or how it plans to address the challenges of demographic changes and prioritise its use of resources in the light of these changes. Is this topic actually within the remit of the committee?

· The issues are strategic, and evidence required for planning would depend upon trend analysis and demographic statistics, this might limit the type of evidence taken by a committee; it would also require some speculation and prediction. The Committee could possibly contribute to policy development?

· The issues are probably timely, but are they not under consideration elsewhere in the organisation, eg. in departments, Treasurer's etc?

Potential stakeholders:

County officers, possibly health analysts, Dir of Public Health, demographics expert(s) from academia, research officers such as in R&H, departmental strategy development officers/directors.

Strategies: Corporate and Departmental

Statistical data show clear demographic shifts over time, and that these changes will drive the need for services to adapt in terms of priorities, workforce and what can be afforded. However, there is a tension between meeting the service needs of today and planning for changes that may be required in five, ten, or twenty years time.

Whilst the corporate strategy and business plan make little mention of demographic trends, in the one area that is currently experiencing the pressure of changing service needs, Adult Services, it is clear that the service is well aware and planning to address this issue. It is not clear what departments might be expected to do in the present to prepare for demographic changes that have not yet impacted the service, except to develop more effective and efficient approaches to the delivery of services that take full advantage of synergies to be found with statutory and 3^rd sector partners, eliminate duplication and non-cost effective practices, and look for more opportunities to share resources. Better intelligence and information about people's needs may also help the County to move towards better targeted services rather than blanket solutions that make a real difference to only a small proportion of the population.

In summary, it is not clear that the Committee could add practical value to the County if departments that might be affected are already addressing demographic change, and if departments that are not immediately affected, have not prioritised addressing future changes. It is also possible that premature responses to pressures that are not current/real, might disadvantage current recipients of services.