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Table of Contents

1 Executive summary

1.1 Hampshire County Council is discussing with Crofton School a proposal to establish at the school, by September 2010 (or as soon as possible after this), provision for young people with a severe Autistic Spectrum Disorder (ASD). Crofton School is a mainstream foundation school that caters for 11 to 16 year olds. As a foundation school, Crofton would be responsible for making any statutory proposal in respect of a prescribed alteration of this type. However, in order for the school to be in a position to pursue this proposal, the County Council would need to confirm that capital funding would be available.

1.2 All the pupils admitted would have general ability within the normal range of the Crofton School and a statement of special educational needs which identifies ASD as their primary special educational need; this includes Asperger's Syndrome. ASD are best described as social communication difficulties. Young people with these special educational needs do not always understand what would be regarded as everyday social conventions unless they are specifically taught and there is insufficient provision for this within the South East of Hampshire.

1.3 The provision would reduce pressure on expensive Out County special school placements and, as such, would expect to achieve significant cashable efficiency savings.

2 Introduction

2.1 There is resourced mainstream provision for secondary school aged pupils with ASD in the North and West of the County (at Robert May's School and Romsey School) but no similar provision in the South East. This is a proposal to establish South East provision.

2.2 There is already provision for ASD Children and young people at Baycroft School. This is a special school which caters for 11-16 year olds and it shares a site with Crofton School; the intention is that the mainstream school and the special would liaise closely over ASD provision sharing resources and expertise.

2.3 There is an ASD provision established at Fareham College which takes children and young people from Crofton and Baycroft Schools.

3 Aim

3.1 To provide a facility for secondary school aged children and young people with ASD and mainstream ability to be educated in a school where there is a whole-staff awareness of their needs and where the staff are supported by appropriately qualified and experienced specialist colleagues.

4 Objectives

4.1 To offer a range of provision to respond to the needs of children and young people with ASD taking account of collaborative arrangements including those between mainstream and special schools.

4.2 To provide access to appropriately trained staff and access to specialist support.

4.3 To support the Local Authority's strategy for making schools more accessible to disabled children and young people and the scheme for promoting equality of opportunity for disabled people.

4.4 To ensure appropriate provision for 14-19 year olds, of mainstream and special school ability, taking account of the role of the local FE college.

4.5 To build capacity for children and young people with ASD and increase parental choice.

4.6 To reduce pressure on demand for expensive out-County special school placements.

5 Links to Corporate Priorities

5.1 At the Education Committee meeting held on 23 May 2000, publication of notices in respect of the ASD provisions at Robert May's School and Romsey School was agreed and the Committee resolved that officers should give further consideration to the setting up of a third such provision. It is only recently that a suitable secondary school has confirmed a willingness to host this provision.

5.2 This proposal supports the Hampshire County Council priority, "Maximising well-being," because young people with ASD need specialist support if they are to be able to achieve their potential at school and when they enter employment, training or further education.

6 Comprehensive Impact Assessment

6.1 There has been no adverse equality impact identified. All the young people that would be admitted to the proposed provision could be described as disabled under the terms of disability legislation. It should be noted that boys would benefit more than girls from this provision but this is because the incidence of ASD is greater amongst boys than it is amongst girls.

7 Links to Departmental Priorities

7.1 There would be an expected reduction in the number of appeals to the Special Educational Needs and Disability Tribunal, a reduction in the need for specialist residential school placements which involve the young people having to be educated away from home and their local community and a reduction in the number of young people with ASD who leave school but do not enter education, employment or training.

8 Legislation

8.1 There is statutory guidance issued by the Department for Children, Schools and Families for "Making Changes to a Maintained Mainstream School (Other than Expansion)." A proposal to establish resourced provision at Crofton School for pupils with severe ASD would satisfy the statutory guidance.

9 Option development and short listing

9.1 Identifying the Options

9.1.1 An analysis of statemented pupils with ASD as at January 2008 has identified that approximately 100 children in the South East of Hampshire were being educated across a variety of different types of provision including mainstream schools, maintained special schools (for children with more complex neeeds) and more expensive out county provision. This level of activity has remained relatively stable over the past three years as demonstrated below.

9.1.2 In addition to the activity levels outlined above, there are also a number of pupils who have a prime area of special educational needs relating to speech language and communication difficulties, moderate learning difficulties and emotional and social difficulties who also have ASD.

9.1.3 This information demonstrates that demand exists within the South East of the County for Hampshire to build additional capacity for providing specialised ASD provision within mainstream education, and that opportunities also exist to make more effective use of it's resources.

9.1.4 Two main options have been considered:

Option A - Do nothing

9.1.5 No changes are made to the existing arrangements for young people with a severe ASD. As there is currently no mainstream specialised unit provision within the South-East of the County, this would require young people to continue to access more expensive day and residential out-county placements and other non-specialised mainstream provision.

Option B - New special provision at Crofton School

9.1.6 Investigate a proposal to establish by September 2010 (or as soon as possible after this), a specialised provision for young people with severe ASD through capital investment to cater for 12 pupils aged 11-16, with admissions phased over a four to five year period.

9.1.7 This would require a capital outlay of approximately £800,000. However, as this provision is not within the current capital programme, an alternative source of funding is required.

9.1.8 As the proposal would qualify under the prudential borrowing rules for capital financing (as a project of an `invest to save' nature generating improved efficiency (cost savings) or additional income sufficient to finance the borrowing costs), it is proposed that £500,000 of the overall capital funding required would come from prudential borrowing. This would enable the borrowing costs to be met from the revenue stream of the Schools Budget (Dedicated Schools Grant) over a suggested period of time.

9.1.9 The remaining £300,000 funding would be secured from the budget for the Schools Access Initiative, with a facility to draw down a further £100,000 if the cost of the proposal increases beyond the estimate.

9.1.10 If prudential borrowing is used to fund the initial capital outlay, repayments would be made over a maximum period of ten years, with the first payment commencing in the financial year following the draw down of the loan. However, it is proposed that repayment for this borrowing should take place over a short six year period, as this would reduce the overall amount of interest which would be incurred over the period of the loan, and the anticipated savings are sufficient to achieve this.

9.1.11 Interest payments for a loan over a six year period are currently estimated at 5.07% per annum based on current terms. It is not possible to calculate exactly how much the annual repayments would be until the actual amount of the loan drawn down in each financial year is known, but an estimate of £98,700 per annum has been calculated based upon the assumption that the full £500,000 would be drawn down in full during 2009/10.

9.1.12 The additional formula funding requirement for all twelve pupils would be approximately £188,000 per annum. However, of the 12 new placements this provision would provide when at full capacity, it is estimated that a minimum of four of the pupils would have otherwise been placed within an out-county (boarding or non-boarding) placement at an average cost of approximately £90,000 for each child per annum. This is supported by the activity information provided above. In addition it is expected that savings of approximately £7,000 per annum would be achieved for each of the other eight pupils from avoided special discretionary exceptions funding being provided to mainstream schools. This assumption has been made for the purpose of the costings model presented for option B. However, the cashable savings could in fact be higher if more then four of the children educated at the new provision would have otherwise been placed in more expensive Out County provision.

9.1.13 Out County provision is provided for a number of children who have a wide range of different and complex needs, not only ASD. The number of children educated within Out County placements (including both boarding and non-boarding provision) over the previous two academic years suggests that there has been some slight growth in demand. This is demonstrated below:

	2006/07 Academic Year	2007/08 Academic Year	Change %
September (autumn term)	218	211	-3.2
January (spring term)	214	221	+3.2
April (summer term)	227	238	+4.9
Average over academic year	220	223	1.3

9.1.14 The current forecast outturn for out county placements (as at the end of August 2008) is reflecting an overspend of approximately £440,000 against the budget, which is primarily due to a recent increase in activity levels.

9.1.15 If activity levels in Out County provisions should continue to grow then it should be noted that the Crofton provision would result in additional revenue costs in relation to pupils with ASD being avoided against the Schools Budget, rather then actual cashable savings being achieved.

9.2 Evaluation of the options

Option A - Do nothing

9.2.1 The annual cost of continuing to support 12 pupils within Out County and other non-specialised mainstream provision would be approximately £416,000. This is based an assumption that the average cost of an Out County placement would be £90,000 for each of four children, and the cost of Special Discretionary Exceptions payments to mainstream secondary schools for the remaining eight children would be £7,000 each, as outlined below:

9.2.2 This annual cost would increase/decrease depending on the number of pupils within each type of provision, and the potential annual cost of continuing to support pupils within a different mix of existing sources of provisions are outlined below:

9.2.3 This option will not build additional capacity within the South-East of the county.

Option B - New special provision at Crofton School

9.2.4 A financial model to calculate the year on year formula and other revenue impact of this new provision has been developed which incorporates the assumptions outlined within paragraph 9.1.12 (i.e. over time this provision would avoid a minimum of four pupils from needing to be placed in more expensive Out County provision).

9.2.5 However, it is not expected that children who are currently educated within alternative secondary provision would be moved to Crofton once it is completed as the need for them to remain within a stable environment is often paramount due to the difficulties they experience in everyday social interaction and, in particular, changes to their routines. This model therefore allows for a phased admission process of children moving from year 6 primary provision into year 7 secondary provision at Crofton over a five year period starting in September 2010 as outlined below:

Academic Year	Assumed number of pupil admissions
2010/11	2
2011/12	4
2012/13	7
2013/14	10
2014/15	12
2015/16	12
2016/17	12
2017/18	12

9.2.6 In addition, this phased admission will allow staff at Crofton to develop their experience to support the growth of the school over a period of time, whilst providing them with some scope to manage any additional demand for provision which may also arise.

9.2.7 However, to enable the school to provide a viable service to pupils from September 2010, a minimum of five pupil places would need to be funded for the duration of the 2010/11 and 2011/12 financial years. The additional cost of funding these five places has been reflected in the financial model. From 2012/13 the cost of funding the assumed number of pupil admissions (as reflected in the table above) has been included.

9.2.8 This model suggests that additional (net) costs would be incurred by the department during the first three financial years of the programme (2009/10 to 2012/13), but that after this period the provision should start to realise revenue savings (or avoid equivalent growth in expenditure) year on year.

9.2.9 Overall the full costs of the programme (including repayment in full of the prudential borrowing) could be expected to be recovered during 2016/17 (either in terms of actual cashable savings or avoided future costs if where growth in provision is experienced). This is demonstrated within the table below.

9.2.10 This table demonstrates that over the eight year period 2009/10 to 2017/18, a potential reduction in revenue expenditure (or avoided equivalent growth) of approximately £400,000 could be achieved.

9.3 Investment appraisal (Financial and Non-Financial)

9.3.1 Full details of the calculations for option B are shown in appendix C(i). In addition the net present value, whole of life cost, and payback period of both options have been calculated and are shown in appendix C(ii), C(iii) C(iv), C(v) and C(vi) respectively.

9.3.2 A non-financial weighted benefit analysis has also been completed to consider the more qualitative aspects of the two options which can not be so easily measured, and this is shown at appendix D.

9.3.3 The results of each method of investment appraisal has been ranked for each option in order of beneficial outcome to the County Council (with the most beneficial rated as 1, and the least beneficial as 2). Theses are summarised below:

		Options
		A	B
Financial Investment Appraisal	Rank
Net Present Value		2	1
Whole Life Analysis		2	1
Pay Back Period		2	1
Non-Financial Appraisal
Weighted Benefit Analysis		2	1

9.4 Risk assessment of options

9.4.1 The key risks of each option have been considered and are summarised in the table below. Based on these identified risks, each option has been given a rating (1 or 2).

9.5 Short listing options

9.5.1 Each method of investment appraisal and risk assessment has been weighted in terms of overall importance, and based on the rankings outlined previously, each option has been scored and ranked overall in order of the most beneficial outcome to the County Council.

10 Recommendation

10.1 Recommended option

10.1.1 Based on the investment and other non-financial analysis completed, it is recommended that option B is the preferred option, i.e. to build a new specialised ASD provision at Crofton School. This would help to not only improve access to this type of provision within the South-East of the County, but also build capacity within Hampshire's own ASD provision, and improve parental and pupil choice.

10.2 Funding

10.2.1 Details of funding sources for the preferred option are shown in the table below:

11 Implementation

11.1 Project management structure

11.1.1 As Crofton is a Foundation School, the Governing Body would be responsible for the project management. The Governors have established a sub-group which would manage the project and which can draw on assistance from a range of professionals from the County Council.

11.2 Key milestone dates

11.3 Accountability

11.3.1 The Governors would be accountable to the County Council for capital expenditure and implementation of the project and senior officers from the County Council are co-opted on to the sub group established by the Governing Body and referred to above. The Governors would also be responsible for managing the provision once children are admitted and the provision would then be subject to OFSTED inspection and inspection by the County Council's Inspection and Advice Service as commissioned by the Special Educational Needs Service.

11.4 Resources

11.4.1 Staffing

New staff would be appointed by the school but this would be funded from the increased school budget and would be the responsibility of the Governors.

11.4.2 Non staffing

The new provision would be managed by the Head and Governors of Crofton School but the admission of children with SEN would be managed through statutory process by the County Council.

11.5 Risk management of project implementation

11.5.1 The sub-committee of the Governing body are in the process of drawing up their own assessment of the risks associated with implementation of the project should it be approved.

12 Appendix A - Acknowledgements

Stephanie Randall Deputy Head of Finance, Children's Services

Felicity Dickinson County Service Manager, Children's Services

Vanessa Courtney Head of County Services, Children's Services

13 Appendix B - Assumptions

13.1 The financial model for option A makes the following assumptions:

- The average cost per annum of an Out County provision is £90,000

- The average cost of providing special discretionary exceptions funding to mainstream schools would be £7,000 per annum per child

13.2 The financial model for option B makes the following assumptions:

- A total of 12 places will be provided for at Crofton

· four would have otherwise been provided for within Out County provision at an estimated annual cost of £90,000 per placement

· eight would have otherwise been provided for with mainstream provision with special discretionary exceptions payments being made to the schools amounting to £7,000 per annum per child

- Phased admission to Crofton over period September 2010 to September 2014 as follows:

Academic Year	Assumed number of pupil admissions
2010/11	2
2011/12	4
2012/13	7
2013/14	10
2014/15	12
2015/16	12
2016/17	12
2017/18	12

- Formula funding identified has been based on 2008/09 rates

- Expectation that any prudential borrowing would be drawn down in full during 2009/10

- Building works will commence and complete in 2009/10

- First repayment of prudential borrowing in 2010/11

- Repayment to be completed over period of 6 years

- Estimated prudential borrowing interest rate of 5.07%

- Crofton provision to open in September 2010

14 Appendix C - Calculations

Appendix C(i) - Summary of Option B calculations

Appendix C(ii) - NPV of Option A

Appendix C(iv) - NPV Summary

Appendix C(v) - Whole of Life Summary

Appendix C(vi) - Pay back summary

15 Appendix D - Weighted benefit analysis