Population estimates and forecasts

Population and dwelling estimates up to 2031

To ensure the data meets your needs, see How to use forecasts, estimates and projections.

Small Area Population Forecasts (SAPF)

Hampshire County Council produces the Small Area Population Forecasts (SAPF). The data published here provides an estimate of the population and number of dwellings for:

Hampshire as a whole
the 11 districts within Hampshire
the cities of Portsmouth and Southampton

The population figures are broken down by age and gender and are forecast from 2024 to 2031.

Data

Methodology

Forecast methodology technical note

In the current economic climate, forecasting dwelling supply has been difficult. The figures are the best projections available as of 1 April 2024, on a site by site basis and taking account of market conditions.

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Dashboard

Hampshire County Council have produced a new set of Small Area Population Forecasts (SAPF) extending to 2031. These replace the 2023 based forecasts published in May 2024.

Explore the Population Estimates & Forecasts 2024-2031 Dashboard. This link opens an ARCGIS dashboard, which may not be suitable for users of assistive technology.

These forecasts are from the Small Area Population Forecasts (SAPF) model. The base is taken as being the 2021 Census and they are available at the geographies relating to the Census. They commence from April 2024 population estimates rolled forward from the 2021 Census. The 2021 base populations, from which the rolled forward estimates commence, are the 2021 Census populations.

The 2024 population estimates are rolled forward from 2021, incorporating known births and deaths and known dwelling completions. The unknown elements are the in and out flows of migrants. The model deals with these as three separate flows: in migrants to the new dwelling completions, and in and out migrants from the existing stock of dwellings. The net effect of these forecast flows is controlled by an assumption that at district level, average household size declines at the same average annual rate as in the previous decade. Students and Armed Forces personnel are largely assumed constant throughout the period of the forecasts.

The forecasts are based on future dwellings supply. The dwelling supply information for the period 2024 to 2031 includes all large and small sites with planning permission, or allocated in local plans as at April 1st 2024. The assumptions on phasing are agreed with the district councils and unitary authorities. Additional dwelling information is obtained from district’s Strategic Housing and Land Availability Assessment (SHLAA).

The figures are the best predictions available as at 1/4/2024 on a site-by-site basis taking account of the current market conditions.

Fertility and Mortality rates are the Office for National Statistics (ONS) 2022 based projected rates for England & Wales, adjusted by appropriate local level correction factors to reflect local variations from the national average.

In and out Migration propensities have been derived from ONS 2021 Census migration data.

Household Representative rates are ONS 2018 based.

Vacancy and sharing rates are derived from the 2021 Census and assumed constant. The number of second homes is also assumed constant.

The geographical base for the forecasts is the 2021 Census Output Areas.

Note that the figures might not sum due to rounding.

Long term projections

The County Council does not produce its own projections. We use the Sub National Population Projections (SNPPs) produced by the Office for National Statistics.

They suggest what the population will look like over a longer time period. They are produced for all local authorities, so that the data can be compared across the whole country.

The projected local authority populations for each year are calculated by ageing on the population from the previous year, applying local fertility and mortality rates to calculate the projected births and deaths, and then adjusting for migration into and out of each local authority. The local fertility, mortality and migration assumptions are estimated values based on trends from the last five years.

Mid-year estimates of population

Mid-year estimates are produced by the Office for National Statistics. The data provide estimates of the population of individual districts within Hampshire and the Unitary Authorities of Portsmouth and Southampton.

Mid-Year population estimates broken down by age and gender for 2012 to 2020.

Data