JSNA Demography

This summary report presents the key demographic data and trends across Hampshire. Data presented focus on the age structure of our population and future projections, the socio demographic and protective characteristics of our population and deprivation.

Measures of mortality and morbidity; life expectancy and healthy life expectancy, are also discussed to provide an overall measure of population health.

The data in the summary report below can be explored further and in greater detail for areas such as districts, Clinical Commissioning Groups and Primary Care Networks by using the JSNA 2021 demography data report.

This link opens a Power BI presentation. Power BI is an interactive data visualization software developed by Microsoft.

Understanding how the population structure in Hampshire has changed over time is really important, it can help explain population patterns and trends we see now which influence our health. This short animation shows our changing and ageing population structure from the first census in 1861 to the population reported in census 2021. The solid bars represent the Hampshire population, and the lines are England and Wales population for comparison.

Resident Population of Hampshire

Age and sex structure of the resident population

The population of Hampshire is estimated to be 1.409 million people. There are slightly more females, 51%, than males.

Compared to England, Hampshire has an older population structure, with a greater proportion of the population aged 50 years and over and a lower proportion of working age, 20 to 44 years.

• Young people (aged 0-19 years) make up 22.6% of the population compared to 23.6% nationally.
• Hampshire has fewer young working age people (aged 20-44 years) compared to England as a whole; 27.9% in Hampshire compared to 32.4% in England.
• Older people, aged 70 years and over, make up 16.6% of the population compared to 13.4% nationally.
• 1.4% are in the 'oldest old' over 90 years population age group compared to 0.9% in England.

Figure 1: Hampshire resident population age and sex structure compared to England

Source: HCC 2020-based Small Area Population Forecasts. England ONS 2020 midyear population estimates.

Resident population change

The population of Hampshire is expected to increase by 6.3% over the seven-year period from 2020 to 2027, this equates to an increase of 88,211 people.

Hampshire district population’s are all forecast to increase but this varies.

The most growth over the next few years is forecast to occur in Winchester district where the population is expected to increase by 10.9% (a rise of 13,982 people) by 2027. Conversely Gosport's population is forecast to increase by 1.7% (a rise of 1,440 people).

The population of Hampshire is ageing with increases predicted mainly amongst the older population, aged 75 years and older.

Figure two shows that the districts with the largest increases in this older population are:

• Basingstoke and Deane
• Rushmoor
• Test Valley

In these districts the over 75 years population is forecast to increase by over 30% between 2020 and 2027.

Figure 2: All age and 75 years and over population forecasts between 2020 and 2027

Source: HCC 2020-based Small Area Population Forecasts.

Population density

Population density is the number of people living in an area, overall Hampshire’s population density is lower than England, 377.7 people per square kilometre in Hampshire compared to 434 per square kilometre in England.

Population density varies greatly across the county, from 190.5 people per square kilometre in Winchester to 3,337.3 people per square kilometre in Gosport. Higher population density is generally correlated to the urban rural classification of the area.

Those classified as predominantly urban (Office for National Statistics Rural Urban Classification 2011) have a greater population density. These are Eastleigh, Fareham, Gosport, Havant and Rushmoor.

Indices of deprivation

Hampshire is among the least deprived authorities in England according to the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) 2019, although there are pockets within Hampshire that fall within the most deprived areas in the country.

Hampshire is the 16th least deprived Upper Tier Authority in England (rank out of 151 authorities). At a district level, Hart is the least deprived area in England. Our most deprived areas are in Rushmoor, Havant, Gosport and Eastleigh, with pockets also in the New Forest. Havant is the most deprived district in Hampshire ranked 119th out of 317 in the local authority IMD rankings and placing the district in the top 50% most deprived authorities.

Comparing deprivation between the 2015 and 2019 IMD suggest an increase in place-based deprivation in Havant, notably in Leigh Park.

Two supplementary indexes are produced alongside the income deprivation domain which explore income deprivation specifically affecting children (0 to 15 years) and older people (aged 60 years and over).

The income subdomains for children and older people suggest:

• 10% of children in Hampshire aged 0 to 15 years are living in income deprived families
• IDACI ranks eight areas in Hampshire in the most deprived decile nationally, six of these are in Havant
• 9% of residents aged 60 or over experience income deprivation
• IDAOPI ranks 14 areas in Hampshire in the most deprived decile nationally, 12 of these are in Rushmoor

These data show there is marked inequality across the county with areas of significant deprivation affecting children and older people.

Protected characteristics

The Census is the most robust source of information about the protected characteristics of the resident population for Hampshire. This section looks at the data from the 2021 Census and where possible makes comparisons to the 2011 Census.

Ethnic minority groups

The Hampshire population is less diverse than England as a whole, with 92.6% of residents describing themselves as belonging to White ethnic groups compared to the national average of 81%. The diversity of the area's population is increasing, 7.4% of the population described themselves as of an ethnic background other than White in 2021, up from 5% in the previous census conducted in 2011.

Basingstoke and Deane and Rushmoor, both in the north of the county, are more diverse when compared to Hampshire overall. Urban areas in particular across the county tend to have higher ethnic group diversity. Over 23% of the Rushmoor population are from a non-white British ethnic group, with over 10,575 people identifying themselves as Nepalese in the 2021 Census.

Overall, the white population of Hampshire has higher proportions of people in the older age groups. The demographic of the population who are from an ethnic minority group is younger.

Disability

To understand the level of disability in our population the responses from the Census 2021 question were analysed. This asked, do you have any physical or mental health conditions lasting or expected to last 12 months or more?

Across Hampshire 75.4% of people did not have any conditions or illnesses which reduced their ability to carry out day-to-day activities, this is slightly worse (lower) than England proportion of 75.9%.

5.8% of people said they had a condition or illness which limited their day-to-day activities a lot. This varied across the county between 4.2% in Hart to 7.7% in Gosport.

Religion or belief

Census 2021 data reported almost two thirds of Hampshire residents (51.5%) stated they had a religion, 42.8% no religion and 5.7% did not say.

Christianity was the dominant religion with 47.8% of Hampshire residents reporting to be Christian. 1.1% reported Hindu as their religion, 0.9% Muslim and 0.8% Buddhist.

Across the districts religion varied the most in Rushmoor, reflecting the greater ethnic diversity in this district. Christianity remained the dominant religion, but the proportion was lower than Hampshire (42.3%). 5.7% reported Hindu as their religion, 2.5% Muslim and 4.7% Buddhist.

Marriage and civil partnership

Census 2021 data reported that over half of Hampshire residents (50.9%) were married, 30.7% never married and never registered a civil partnership, 9.7% divorced and 6.6% widowed or a surviving partner from a same sex civil partnership.

The highest proportion of people who never married and never registered a civil partnership were in Basingstoke & Deane (33.4%) and Rushmoor (35.5%).

New Forest reported the highest proportion of people widowed or surviving partner from a civil partnership (8.3%).

Gosport reported the highest proportion of people divorced or formerly in a civil partnership which is now legally dissolved (12.3%).

Pregnancy and maternity

Smoking during pregnancy can cause serious pregnancy-related health problems. These include complications during labour and an increased risk of miscarriage, premature birth, stillbirth, low birthweight and sudden unexpected death in infancy.

Smoking in pregnancy has well known detrimental effects for the growth and development of the baby and health of the mother. On average, smokers have more complications during pregnancy and labour, including bleeding during pregnancy, placental abruption and premature rupture of membranes.

Recent data for the financial year 2021/22 suggest that in Hampshire 9.1% of mothers (1,141 mothers) were known to be smokers at the time of delivery. This varies across the county between 5.6% in Rushmoor (64 mothers) to 9.70% in Gosport (71 mothers).

Trend data show that since 2010/11 the percentage of mothers smoking had been decreasing and remains significantly lower or comparable to England in Hampshire, however there was an increase in Hampshire from the 2020-2021 measure of 7.9% to 9.1%. At district level Basingstoke and Deane, Eastleigh, Hart, New Forest, Rushmoor, Test Valley and Winchester saw a slight increase in 2021/22. All other districts saw a slight decrease. Trends can fluctuate considerably at a district level due to the smaller population therefore it is important to consider the long-term trends.

Sexual Orientation and gender identity

In the 2021 Census, 91.3% of Hampshire residents identified as ‘Straight or Heterosexual’, this was similar across all districts. 1.2% identified as ‘Gay or Lesbian’, this varied from 1.0% in the New Forest to 1.6% in Gosport. 1.1% identified as ‘Bisexual’, this varied from 0.8% in Hart and the New Forest to 1.7% in Winchester. 0.3% identified as ‘All other sexual orientations’ this was similar across all districts. 6.2% did not answer.

95% of Hampshire residents identified their gender as being the same as registered at birth. 0.35% identified their gender as being different to that registered at birth. 4.6% did not answer. At district level, those who identified as being a different gender to that registered at birth from 0.23% in the New Forest to 0.75% in Rushmoor.

In Hampshire, of those who identified as being a different gender to that registered at birth, 0.1% identified at ‘Trans Woman’, 0.1% as ‘Trans Man’, 0.1% identified as ‘Non Binary’, less than 0.1% identified as ‘other’ and 0.1% did not specify a gender. With the exception of Rushmoor, where 0.4% identified as being a different gender to that registered at birth but did not specify which gender they now identify to, all other districts had very similar percentages.

Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy

Overall Hampshire’s population health is better than England. A boy born in Hampshire today will live on average for 81.4 years, this is two years longer than the average for England. A girl born in Hampshire today will live on average for 84.6 years, this is one and a half years longer than the average for England.

Life expectancy varies with deprivation and is a key high level inequalities outcome measure. Males living in the most deprived areas of Hampshire could expect to live 76.8 years compared to 84.3 years in the least deprived areas, a difference of 7.5 years. Whilst females living in the most deprived areas of Hampshire could expect to live 81.5 years compared to 86.8 years in the least deprived areas, a difference of 5.3 years.

Across Hampshire life expectancy for males and females has been increasing over time, however improvements have slowed and this has been particularly so for females generally, and for both males and females in the more deprived areas.

Healthy life expectancy shows the years a person can expect to live in good health (rather than with a disability or in poor health). It is therefore a significant measure of a person's quality of life.

Life expectancy estimates show females live for longer compared to men but they also live in poor health for longer too. Male healthy life expectancy is 66.7 years, indicating an additional 14.7 years are spent in poor health. Female healthy life expectancy is 66.1 years, indicating an additional 18.5 years are spent in poor health.

Inequalities in healthy life expectancy are evident with those living in the most deprived areas living a smaller proportion of their lives in good health. Males and females living in the most deprived areas of Hampshire live in poor health for 11.3 years and 10.5 years longer respectively, compared to those living in the least deprived areas.

Over the last five to six years healthy life expectancy has decreased for both males and females by 2.3 years and 2.5 years respectively. This suggests people overall are living longer in poor health with a bigger decrease observed in females' healthy life expectancy.