Demography

This chapter will present the key trends in the resident population

Overall population structure

Current population structure

  • The population of Hampshire is estimated to be 1.35 million people, making it the third most populous county in England after Kent and Essex
  • Over the ten year period 2001 to 2011 Hampshire’s population increased by 6.3%, 77,700 people
  • Young people (aged 0-19 years) make up 23% of the population compared to 24% nationally
  • Hampshire has fewer young working aged people (aged 20-39) compared to England as a whole; 22% in Hampshire compared to 27% in England
  • Older people (over the age of 75) make up 10% of the population compared to 8% nationally
  • The 2011 census reported that 91.8% of Hampshire’s population are ethnic group ‘White British’; this is much higher than the national figure of 79.8% and a marked decrease from 2001 where 95.4%.  of the population were ‘White British’

In summary the population of Hampshire is changing; our population is growing; it’s getting older; and we are becoming more diverse.

Hampshire County Council’s Small Area Population Forecasts (SAPF) provides the latest information on the total and age sex structure of the population (SAPF, 2016).  The population pyramid highlights the ageing population, particularly showing a larger projected increase in the 60-64 years and 75-79 years cohorts and a marked projected decrease in the proportion of people aged 45 to 59 years.

Hampshire County Council's population age and sex structure

Source: Hampshire County Council’s 2016 based Small Area Population Forecasts (SAPF)

Population factsheet

Small Area Population Forecasts (SAPF)

2011 Census headline facts and figures

History of population change in Hampshire

Hampshire’s population today very much reflects its past and understanding this and the changing population structure over time can aid policy development and inform the commissioning of services and delivery.

Population pyramids can tell a lot about an area age and sex structure and how it has changed over time. It is possible to see how Hampshire’s population has aged and grown and how significant social and economic events have impacted on the county’s population.

Hampshire’s population has changed hugely over the last 150 years or so. The total population has increased from 231,000 people in 1851 when more than a third of the population were aged under 15; to today’s population which totals over 1.35 million people and in which almost 287,000 people (21%) are aged 65 or older.

In 1851 Hampshire’s population pyramid is very triangular and shows a population with a high number of young dependants and a low life expectancy. By 2011 the population pyramid is barrel-like, with straight sides and this is indicative of a population with a lower birth rate and rising life expectancy. Whilst unlikely, post 2011 the population structure may change further to an upside down pyramid with a significantly higher proportion of the population being older and a very small child population.

Hampshire Census 1851

Hampshire Census 1951

Hampshire Census 2011

Source: Census data

Population forecasts and projections

  • The population of Hampshire is expected to increase by 7.5% from 1,353,400 in 2016 to 1,455,400 by 2023
  • The population of Hampshire is ageing with increases predicted mainly amongst the older age groups. The proportion of the 85 years and over population is expected to increase by almost 30%, to 54,600 people by 2023
  • The proportions of dependent populations (both old and young) compared to working aged populations are also set to increase
  • The most growth over the next few years is forecast to occur in the Basingstoke and Deane district where the population is expected to increase by over 17,000 people (equating to a rise of 9.9%) by 2023
  • Conversely Gosport’s population is only set to increase by 350 people (0.4% increase)

Hampshire population pyramids 2016 and 2023 population projections

Hampshire population pyramids 2016 and 2023 population projections

Source: 2016 based SAPF and ONS 2014 based Long Term National Projections

Small area population forecasts

Population factsheet

Births/Deaths/Migration

In Hampshire the number of children born is consistently higher than the number of residents who are dying; in 2015 there were 14,345 live births and 12,616 deaths. Over the last five years the rate of natural increase, that is the difference between the crude birth and crude death rate, has decreased. There are huge variations in each district.

Crude death and birth rates per 100,000 population

Since the 1970’s the New Forest has seen more deaths than births each year and since 2001 this has largely been the case in East Hampshire, Fareham, Havant and Winchester.

  • The district with the highest number of births in 2015 was Basingstoke and Deane with 2,170 births, the lowest number in Gosport (n= 980)
  • The district with the highest number of deaths in 2015 was the New Forest with 2,220 deaths, the lowest number in Hart (n= 670)
  • With the exception of Gosport where the death rate is slightly above the national average, death rates across Hampshire districts are consistently lower than the national average

The demographics of mothers are changing. Hampshire mothers are getting older, in 1991 35% of births were to women aged over 30, by 2015 this had increased to 66%. There has also been a growing proportion of births to non-British born mothers, with the majority of non-British born mothers born in Europe (68% or 1,050 births). Rushmoor had the largest proportion, almost one third of births were to non-British born mothers, and 41% of these births were to mothers originating from the Middle East and Asia.

Migration is more complex and there is no legal requirement to inform a single body when someone moves. As such, data on migration is much less robust and comes with limitations on its use. Economic migrant data from the Department of Work and Pensions report that between June 2015 and June 2016 there were just over 7,000 national insurance number registrations to adult overseas nationals in Hampshire. The majority of these people were from the European Union. Across the county, Basingstoke and Deane had the highest proportion of economic migrants (21%) followed by Rushmoor (17%)

Births, deaths and migration

The story of migration and the implications for Hampshire

Ageing

The population of Hampshire is older than the national average and ageing faster. The average age across Hampshire County is 42 years (highest in the New Forest at 47 years and lowest in Rushmoor at 36 years), compared to the average age nationally of 39 years.

Population forecasts suggest that in 2023 there will be 123 elderly people for every 100 children

  • 18.5% of Hampshire’s population are aged 65 or over, compared to 16.4% nationally
  • The 65 and over population across Hampshire has grown by 21% since 2001 compared to 11% growth nationally.
  • 8.8% of the population are aged 75 or over, compared to 7.8% nationally
  • 2.6% of the population are aged 85 or over, compared to 2.2% nationally

Across the districts the level of ageing varies significantly, though all districts have seen their populations getting older.

  • The New Forest has the highest number of residents aged 65 and over. One quarter of the population are aged 65 and over compared to just 12.2% of Rushmoor’s total population
  • The district of Hart has experienced the largest growth across the period 1981 to 2011, its 65 year and older population more than doubling over the period (reaching 15,000 by 2011). Between 2001 and 2011 the population in Hart aged 85 years and over increased by 43%
  • The largest non-white ethnic group within the older population is the Asian ethnic group at 0.8% of the total population aged 65 and over across Hampshire, equating to 1,880 people. The majority of this population live in Rushmoor and Basingstoke and Deane
  • Looking forward, the ageing of Hampshire’s population is set to continue across the county with the Small Area Population Forecasts (SAPF) suggesting that by 2023 almost 23% of Hampshire’s population will be aged 65 or older, 12.0% aged 75 or older and 3.8% aged 85 or older

The continued increases in Hampshire’s ageing population will mean that the old age dependency ratio (OADR), which measures the number of persons aged 65 and over (age when they are generally economically inactive) as a share of those of working age (15 to 64 years), will continue to rise.

A higher OADR value indicates fewer people of working age to support those who are no longer working and indicates that there may be pressures on services as the proportion of the economically active population decreases. The data show that the Hampshire dependency ratio is higher and increasing at a faster rate than the national ratio. Projections from the Office for National Statistics (SNPP 2014 based) suggest that, by 2030, for every two people of working age, there will be one person aged 65 years or over in Hampshire.

Old age dependency ratio 2006-2015

District level OADR projection data are available (based on ONS SNPP 2014 population data). With the exception of Rushmoor all districts have a higher OADR than England. The chart shows the OADR population projections and suggests that by 2039 for every 1000 working aged people there will be over 500 pensioners in the five districts of New Forest, East Hampshire, Fareham, Havant and Test Valley.

2014 based subnational population projections, old age dependency ratios

Population factsheet

Hampshire ageing profile

Ageing statistics

Small area population forecasts

Life Expectancy/Healthy life expectancy

Indicator Definitions

Life Expectancy (at birth) is the average number of years a person would expect to live based on contemporary mortality rates.

Life Expectancy gap is the difference in the life expectancy figures; this gap can be described by area or gender differences

Healthy Life Expectancy (at birth) is the average number of years a person would expect to live in good health based on contemporary mortality rates and prevalence of self-reported good health.

The Slope Index of Inequality (SII) is a measure of the social gradient in life expectancy, i.e. how much life expectancy varies with deprivation. It takes account of health inequalities across the whole range of deprivation within an area and summarises this in a single number. This number represents the range in years of life expectancy across the social gradient from most to least deprived.

Life expectancy is an over-arching measure of population health; improvements in life expectancy and in the life expectancy gap are ultimate summary measures of improvements to population health and health inequalities.

The charts present the trend data for Hampshire for life expectancy and healthy life expectancy indicators from the Public Health Outcomes Framework. At a county level both life expectancy at birth and healthy life expectancy are consistently better than England and the South East. The exception to this pattern is healthy life expectancy at birth (Female) which is significantly better than England but comparable to the South East.

Currently female life expectancy at birth within Hampshire is 84.3 years, compared with 83.1 years for England and 84.0 for South East. Male life expectancy at birth within Hampshire is 81.1 years, compared with 79.5 years for England and 80.5 years for South East.

Public Health Outcomes Framework Indicators : Life Expectancy at Birth and Health Life Expectancy at Birth

Life expectancy at birth - male Life expectancy at birth - female Healthy life expectancy at birth - male Healthy life expectancy at birth - female

The slope index of inequality in life expectancy at birth measures how much life expectancy varies with deprivation within a local area. Life expectancy varies considerably across the county, for males there is a 6.5 years gap between those in the most deprived and least deprived areas of Hampshire, for females the range is 4.9 years (2013-15 data). The trend in the slope of index inequality in female life expectancy has slightly increased suggesting a slight widening of internal inequalities in Hampshire.

This inequality is evident at a district level; life expectancy at birth for males in Gosport has been significantly lower than England for the last five years. Currently male life expectancy within Gosport is 78.6 years, which is 0.9 years lower than England and 2.5 years lower than average for Hampshire males.

The chart shows the slope of inequality in life expectancy at district level. Havant has always been considered to be one of the more deprived areas within Hampshire; there is also large inequality within Havant, for both males and females.

Slope index of inequality in life expectancy at birth within Hampshire

The trend in the male slope of index score for Fareham, Havant and Winchester is increasing; this is also evident for females in Eastleigh, Fareham, Hart and Havant.

Healthy life expectancy at birth is the average number of years a person would expect to live in good health based on mortality rates and self-reported good health.

As life expectancy increases, the proportion of time spent in good health is decreasing. The table shows that Hampshire male and female residents spend a greater proportion in good health when compared to England.

The latest data for 2013-15 show that at birth Hampshire females will spend 79.8% of their life in good health compared to 82.9% for Hampshire males. So although females live longer than males, they have more years spent in poor health.

Proportion of time spent in good health by gender

   Proportion spent in good health: Males  Proportion spent in good health: Females
   Hampshire England     Hampshire England   
2009 - 11  83.2% 80.0%  81.2%  77.5% 
2010 - 12  82.2% 79.9% 80.2%  77.3%&
 2011 - 13  80.9%  79.7%  78.2%  77.0%
 2012 - 14  83.1%  79.8%  79.2%  76.9
 2013 - 15  82.9%  79.8%  79.8%  77.1%

Data source: Public Health Outcomes Framework

Trend data for Healthy life expectancy is presented in the chart and suggests that overall between 2009/11 to 2013/15 the proportion of time spent in good health for females has decreased. However the last two year data periods have shown an increase.

Hampshire residents: proportion of time spent in good health by gender

Male and female healthy life expectancy at birth data for middle super output areas (MSOA) are shown on the map. The darker areas have significantly lower healthy life expectancy figures than England. The correlation with deprivation is strong, 80% of the variation seen in healthy life expectancy MSOA figures can be explained by deprivation.

Major Contributors to the life expectancy gap are discussed in more detail in the JSNA Living Well section.

Healthy living at birth for males and remales

Health and Unpaid care

The census asks people to rate their general health, whether they have a long term illness or disability and whether they provide unpaid care to others. This information gives an insight into both how good the health is of the people of Hampshire and can be suggestive of the demand for care and level of care provided by Hampshire residents to others.

The majority of Hampshire’s population (84.1%) reported to have good or very good health, compared to 81.4% nationally. 84.3% of Hampshire’s population reported no disabilities, compared to 82.4% nationally.

One in ten Hampshire residents (10.1%) stated they provided some level of unpaid care and this is comparable to national proportion of 10.2%. These findings are interesting given Hampshire’s older population structure.

General health status for Hampshire as a whole and for those aged 65 and older, 2011 Census.

General health status for Hampshire as a whole and for those aged 65 and older

Across Hampshire 4% of people reported to have bad or very bad health, the highest levels were reported in Havant (5.6%) and lowest levels in Hart (2.7%).

Amongst those who reported having a long term illness or disability that limited their day to day activities a lot (6.7% across Hampshire as a whole, compared to 8.3% nationally), the highest levels were again seen in Havant (8.8%) and lowest levels in Hart at 4.5%.

However, looking at those of working age (16-64 years of age) with a disability which limits their day to day activities a lot, it is still Havant with the highest levels at 3.6% and Hart with the lowest at 1.6%. The county wide figure is 2.5% and again compares favourably with the national level of 3.6%.

Variations in levels of unpaid care are also quite evident across the county with highest levels seen in the New Forest and lowest levels in Rushmoor.

Levels of unpaid care provided across Hampshire, 2011 Census

Levels of unpaid care provided across Hampshire

Socio-economic factors

Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD)

Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) is a combination of seven indices (Income, Employment, Education, Health, Crime, Barriers and Living) that measure different aspects of deprivation to give an overall score for the relative level of multiple deprivation experienced in every neighbourhood in England. There are 32,844 areas (Lower Output Areas or LSOAs) and 326 local authorities in England. They are ranked with 1 the most deprived.

Hampshire is among the least deprived authorities in England according to the Index of Multiple Deprivation, although there are pockets within Hampshire that fall within the most deprived areas in the country.

Hampshire is the 12th least deprived Upper Tier Authority in England (rank out of 152 authorities). At a district level Hart is the least deprived area in England in 2015. Havant is the most deprived district in Hampshire ranking 132nd out of 326 in the local authority IMD rankings and placing the district in the top 50% most deprived authorities.

At the neighbourhood geography there are nine areas (LSOAs) that fall within the 10% most deprived neighbourhoods in England. These nine areas are mostly located within the Leigh Park wards in Havant, but also single a LSOA in Town Ward (Gosport) and in North Holbury and Blackfield Ward (New Forest).

There are seven types of deprivation and Hampshire scores relatively well, although on the education and skills deprivation index, based on child attainment and adult skills, the county fared less well. As a predominantly rural county, Hampshire scores badly on access to services, but this is based on distance and will have a natural negative bias in rural areas.

The 2015 English Indices of Deprivation

English indices of deprivation 2015

Social and Deprivation Analysis

Fuel Poverty

Fuel poverty can be described as a low income household that also faces high costs in keeping adequately warm and other basic energy services. Fuel poverty is largely driven by three factors: household income, the current cost of energy and the energy efficiency of the home.

Fuel poverty is associated with colder homes and with the country’s older housing stock that are often made up of relatively energy inefficient properties. The result is a greater number of homes that are costly to heat. In contrast, newer homes are subject to stricter regulation and are built with better insulation meaning that they tend to offer better fuel efficiency.

There is a very strong link between income and fuel poverty; those on lower household incomes are more likely to be at risk of fuel poverty, contributing to social and health inequalities.

It is possible to investigate estimated proportions of households that are fuel poor at the local level with the modelled fuel poverty data. When looking at Hampshire County as a whole, the average percentage of households classified as fuel poor is estimated to be just 6.7%, and well below the national figure (10.7%). Fuel Poverty however varies across districts from a high of 7.6% in Gosport to a low of 5.9% in Basingstoke and Deane and Fareham – though notably all districts are well below the national average figure.

Percentage of fuel poor households by district across Hampshire 2013

Cold weather experienced in the winter months can also affect or exacerbate a range of health problems, including respiratory and circulatory conditions, cardiovascular disease, mental health and accidental injury. In some circumstances, health problems can be aggravated by such a degree that they may cause death. In England, there were an estimated 29,200 excess winter deaths in 2012-13.

Estimates suggest that some 10% of excess winter deaths are directly attributable to fuel poverty and 21.5% of excess winter deaths are attributable to the coldest 25% of homes. As such, even the relatively low levels of households across Hampshire in fuel poverty should not be ignored in light of the significant health risks.

Those aged 75 and older are more likely to be vulnerable to cold weather. Statistical data shows that people aged 75 and over are subject to the greatest increases in excess winter deaths of any age group. With HCC population forecasts suggesting increased levels of elderly in the coming years and furthermore, projections suggest the price of fuel will continue to rise in the future. This is likely to have consequences for the number of households in fuel poverty and cold home related-health problems.

The Health Impacts of Cold Homes and Fuel Poverty

Housing/Tenure

Hampshire County Council records all new dwellings from application to completion. The data is used, amongst other uses, within the Small Area Population Forecasts (SAPF) to help to ensure the population figures are as accurate and robust as possible.

Current figures for Hampshire County Council have suggested 583,100 new dwellings across the county, ranging from 81,300 in the New Forest to 38,800 in Rushmoor. Between 2015 and 2016 there were a total of 5,065 new dwellings completed across the county. The most completed were in Test Valley (1,004 new dwellings) and the least in Rushmoor (173).

Census data can tell us what sort of houses people of Hampshire live in and the size of their households. Over a third of Hampshire households own their property outright, another third own a house with a mortgage. The remaining households rent – either privately (10.6%) or social rent (13.8%). These figures vary significantly across the county for example in Havant almost one fifth of households are social rented 19.5%), Rushmoor has only 23.2% of householders who own their home outright, whilst conversely the New Forest has 43.5%.

Distribution of Housing Tenure by District, 2011

Distribution of Housing Tenure by District, 2011

Source: 2011 Census

According to the 2011 Census, the average number of people living in a household has declined slightly since 2001, down from 2.8 to 2.6 people per household. But not everywhere has declined; Rushmoor, Hart and Winchester have all increased their average household size since 2001.

Land Supply

Housing Land Supply in Hampshire

2011 Census Initial Briefing for Hampshire

2011 Census Information

Labour market

Since 2010 (post-recession period), the employment, unemployment and economic inactivity rates have all been broadly improving in Hampshire and at the national level. However employment rates in 2016 decreased in Hampshire. The unemployment and economic inactivity rates both increased on last year, narrowing the gap with the UK.

Hampshire has an employment rate of 79.5% for the 12 months period October 2015 to September 2016, greater than the national average (73.7%). The unemployment and economic inactivity rates were lower in Hampshire (4.2% and 17% respectively) than in the UK (5.0% and 22.3% respectively) in September 2016.

Employment rate in Hampshire and the UK Unemployment rate in Hampshire and the UK Economic Inactivity Rate in Hampshire and the UK

Exploring Hampshire at district level:

  • The highest employment rate was in Rushmoor (85.0%) and the lowest rate in Havant (71.6%).
  • The lowest economic inactivity rate was in Rushmoor (11.1%) and the highest in Havant (22.0%).
  • The lowest unemployment rate  was in Hart at 2.5% and the highest unemployment rate in Havant at 5.0%.

Another measure of unemployment is the Claimant Count, which is a timelier but much narrower measure of unemployment. It is based on eligible claimants (a mix of legacy Jobseeker's Allowance (JSA) and new Universal Credit (UC) claimants) used in lieu of national datasets. For this reason it is lower than the Government’s preferred survey based measure of unemployment.

Unemployment using the Claimant Count in Hampshire and UK has been falling since 2013 and has returned to pre-recession levels. Since 2016 the rate has levelled off at 0.8% in Hampshire and 1.9% nationally. The UK rate is over twice that of Hampshire.

All 11 Hampshire districts show a Claimant Count rate lower than the UK. Only two districts, Havant and Gosport, have rates above the South East.

Claimant County Unemployment rate across Hampshire and the UK

Similarly at ward level, the majority of wards have rates below both the South East and the UK. However, rates are higher in the more urbanised centres in North Hampshire (Aldershot, Andover and Basingstoke) and South Hampshire (Gosport and Havant). There are a few concentrated neighbourhoods in Leigh Park (Havant) and Town in Gosport with rates above the UK average. Outside the main urban centres there are a couple of areas in East Hampshire (Alton and Bordon) and in the New Forest (Blackfield, Pennington and New Milton) that are above the South East average.

The following maps show the district and ward hotspots from the monthly Hampshire Labour Market Bulletin for Claimant Count.

Claimant Count relative to the UK and South East region

Ward Claimant Count Hotspot - Claimant Count Hotspots January 2017

Ward Claimant Count Hotspot

Labour Market

The Hampshire Labour Market Bulletin January 2017

Worklessness

Another measure used for economic exclusion is the Main Out-of-Work benefits combination. The Out-of-work population in Hampshire reached approximately 44,000 claimants or 5.3% of the working age population in August 2016, lower than the South East (6.2%) and Great Britain (8.6%) averages. The rates are calculated using the mid-2013 resident population aged 16-64.

The Out-of-Work benefit group is a government measure of worklessness that combine the number of claimants on Job Seekers Allowance (JSA), Employment Support Allowance (ESA) or Incapacity Benefit (IB); Lone parents, and Other Income related benefits. Universal Credit and Personal Independence Payment (PIP) are not included. Employment Support Allowance replaced Incapacity Benefits for new Claimants in October 2008. Under current Government proposals these and other benefits would eventually be combined under a single benefit claim, such as the Universal Credit.

Since 2010 and the end of the last recession the Out-of-Work rates have been falling, mostly due to falling unemployment (JSA), but also changes to eligibility for ESA and Lone Parent.

Hart and Winchester districts have the lowest worklessness rates with 3.0% and 4.2% respectively, both lower than the South East and Great Britain averages.

Havant and Gosport have the highest rates with 8.7% and 7.9% respectively, close to the Great Britain average.

Working Age Out-of-Work Benefit Claimant Rates Relative to the GB and South East Region in August 2016

Working age out-of-work benefit claimant rates relative to the GB and South East region

Labour Market

Nomis website

Commuter patterns

Commuter patterns can be influenced by deprivation, with areas of higher deprivation and households with lower incomes less likely to own or have access to a car and be more reliant on public transport. The cost of commuting will also affect the distances travelled and potentially limit employment opportunities for lower socio-economic groups.

Origin-destination data, also known as commuter flow, captures the movement of commuters from their place of residence to their place of work and vice versa.

Hampshire County Council produced factsheets mapping the flows of working residents aged 16yrs+ in terms of those who both live and work in an area and out-commute, as well as those who in-commute from elsewhere. Also captured are the top five destinations of out-commuters and the origins of in-commuters, together with the main methods of travel to work.

Overall, Hampshire is a net exporter of workers, predominantly to neighbouring authorities, but also beyond Hampshire, and notably to Surrey, Berkshire and London for North Hampshire residents.

Winchester is a prime example of a net importer of workers with very high in-commuter flows, principally from the Solent districts, where housing is relatively more affordable.

East Hampshire, Gosport, Hart, Havant and New Forest districts are all net exporters with a larger exodus of commuters travelling mostly to neighbouring areas.

Finally, a balance between in-commuters and out-commuters can be found in Eastleigh, Fareham and Test Valley.

Hampshire local authorities commuter flows factsheets,

Hampshire and Isle of Wight 2011 Commuter Flows factsheet.

Hampshire and Isle of Wight 2011 Commuter Flows

Emerging themes

New housing developments and the impact on the local population dynamics

There is a strong link between dwellings and demographics. From the basic requirement of people for shelter, the County’s population forecasts are constrained to the number of dwellings currently available for habitation and those planned over the forecast period to ensure the most robust estimate of the population can be formulated. But the link between dwellings and population goes further with different types of people more likely to live in different types of property and this can also vary by location.

Work carried out investigating the demographics of new housing developments across Hampshire between 2001 and 2011 suggested that recent new housing developments were more likely to house; younger people; more single never married people; those more likely to catch the train to work; they tend to be more ethnically diverse and more densely populated and more likely to be in more urban areas. This is reflected in the population pyramid which presents the demographics of people in the new housing developments, compared to the county as a whole, and suggests that a young working age cohort aged between 25 and 39 years with young children aged 0 to 9 years are more likely to be living in the new housing developments.

Population Pyramid Hampshire County Council

Source: 2011 Census

The Demography of Hampshire's New Housing Developments

The table presents the predicted population and dwelling changes over the period 2016 to 2023 for each district and the County overall.

The forecasts are based on future dwellings supply. The dwelling supply information for the period 2016 to 2023 includes all large and small sites with planning permission, or allocated in local plans as at April 1st 2016. Additional dwelling information is obtained from district’s Strategic Housing and Land Availability Assessment (SHLAA). The figures are the best projections available as at 1/4/2016 on a site by site basis taking account of the current market conditions.

The table shows that over the next 8 years the number of dwellings is predicted to increase by 9% and the population to grow 8% across the County. Winchester is expected to see the largest population growth (13%) attributed to almost 7,500 more dwellings. Basingstoke and Deane has the largest number of new dwellings and population.

Predicted population and dwelling changes for each district and the County overall, 2016 to 2023.  

  
   Dwelling Growth (2016 to 2023)  Population Growth (2016 to 2023)
Area Number Percentage change Number Percentage change
Basingstoke and Deane 8,612 12%  17,207 10%
East Hampshire 5,841 11% 11,010 9%
Eastleigh 7,025 13% 15,118  12% 
Fareham 3,103 6% 5,318  5%
Gosport 1,223 3%  351  0% 
Hart 3,272 9%  6,386  7%
Havant 3,451 6% 5,541 4%
New Forest 2,315 3% 2,195 1%
Rushmoor 5,831 15% 11,512 12%
Test Valley 5,695 11% 11,212 9%
Winchester 7,439 15% 16,172 13%
Hampshire County Council 53,807 9%  102,022 8%

Dwelling Growth (2016 to 2023)Population Growth (2016 to 2023)

Equality, ethnicity and diversity

Equality and Diversity means treating all people with fairness, decency and respect, and valuing the differences between people.  Understanding our population groups is key to this:

  • Hampshire has a growing diverse population with growing numbers of people from different backgrounds
  • 8.2% of the county’s population are from a non-ethnic White British background, up from 4.6% in 2001
  • Numbers vary markedly across the county and whilst nine of Hampshire’s districts have over 90% of their population defining themselves as being White British; Basingstoke and Deane and Rushmoor, both in the north of the county, fall below the county average
  • Indeed, urban areas in particular across the county tend to have higher ethnic group diversity
  • Over 10% of Rushmoor’s population are from a non-white British ethnic group, with over 6,120 people identifying themselves as Nepalese
  • The age structure of different ethnic group populations varies, and in some cases reflects the length of time communities have lived in the county

Hampshire population pyramids by ethnic group

White British White Other Asian Mixed Black Other

It's important to note how different ethnic groups perceived their general health and owing to the very different age structures it’s key to look at this by age so that any differences are not due to the different age structures in the population sub-groups. Census 2011 data suggests that the older Asian population have a higher proportion of people with bad or very bad health compared to the other ethnic groups.

Self reported health by age band and ethnic group

Self reported health by age band and ethnic group

Source: 2011 Census

Equality and Diversity

Ethnic Group Profile of Hampshire 2011 Census

Ethnicity

The impact of an ageing population of certain population groups

Ageing population of certain vulnerable population groups

Better social conditions and advances and access to medicine has seen an increase in the life expectancy of the population this is also evident in certain population groups such as people with learning disabilities, people with substance misuse and people with certain conditions such as dementia. Historically life expectancy in these groups was significantly lower compared to the general population, for example people with learning disabilities are 50 times more likely to die before the age of 50 (Emerson and Baines, 2010).

Supporting these vulnerable populations groups to age well will inevitably require increased social, health care services but also place greater importance on the role of family and the community. The population of Hampshire is ageing with increases forecast mainly amongst the older age groups, it is therefore important that we understand the effects of this on our vulnerable population groups. Locally robust data are not always available and so forecasting the populations can be very challenging, extrapolating national estimates can help to predict the increase in the numbers of these different groups.

Learning disabilities

The number of people with learning disabilities aged over 60, in England, is predicted to increase by over a third between 2001 and 2021 (Emerson and Hatton 2008). Recent evidence suggests that older people are one of the fastest growing groups of the learning disabled population (Emerson and Hatton 2011). The most recent predictions suggest that by 2030 the number of adults aged over 70 using services for people with learning disabilities will more than double. In Hampshire the number of people aged 65yrs and over with a learning disability is predicted to increase by 41% which equates to almost 2,500 more people.

Substance misuse

An ageing substance misuse population presents challenges for services; older people show complex patterns and combinations of substance misuse. There are an increased number of older people (aged 40yrs+) presenting to treatment and research predicts that in Europe the numbers will double over the next 20 years. However many more older people are likely to be experiencing drug problems because only a minority will be in treatment.

In 2015/16, 5% (n = 132) of the clients in treatment in Hampshire were aged 60 years or more. Over the seven years there has been an increase in the number of older people entering treatment. However in 2015/16 there appears to have been a decrease in those entering treatment aged 50 years and over. Exploring this decrease suggests there may be a data reporting issue and so a continued analysis of the age of people entering treatment would be advisable.

Hampshire trends in the age distribution of new presentations to treatment from 2009-10 to 2015-16. (Data source: NDTMS)

Hampshire trends in the age distribution of new presentations to treatment from 2009-10

Nationally alcohol only clients have the oldest age distribution followed by opiate clients. The chart shows this is also evident in Hampshire. Nationally the substances cited as problematic among new presentations to treatment show there has been an increase in opiate, cocaine and cannabis presentations since 2009-10 for those aged 40 years and over. Conversely the number of under 25 year olds citing any opiate use has fallen by 65% and crack cocaine (not opiate) use by 62% since 2009-10.

Age distribution of all Hampshire clients in treatment 2015-16 (Data source: NDTMS)

Age distribution of all Hampshire clients in treatment 2015-16

Long-term substance misuse causes long-term health complications; sometimes these can be asymptomatic due to the suppressant nature of opiates, consequently chronic respiratory diseases can remain undetected. Other health and social consequences of drug use are premature death, physical and mental health problems, increased falls and confusion, self neglect and withdrawal from friends and family.

Drug and alcohol related deaths have increased in recent years. This can be attributed to the older population and evidence suggests its largely the ageing baby boomer generation, those born post World War Two. In 2015 the national mortality rate from drug misuse was the highest ever recorded. Office for National Statistics stated that age is a factor in the record levels of drug deaths, as heroin users are getting older and they often have other conditions, such as lung disease and hepatitis that make them particularly vulnerable.

NDTMS - National Drug Treatment Monitoring System

Dementia

In the UK, there are an estimated 850,000 people living with dementia. Estimates suggest dementia costs the UK £26 billion a year. This equals one in every 79 (1.3%) of the total population, and 1 in every 14 of the population aged 65 years and over. The JSNA ageing well summary reported that the prevalence of dementia in Hampshire is above national and regional prevalence equating to 12,069 people registered as living with dementia in Hampshire. Between 2010/11 and 2015/16 there has been an increase of 3,766 people recorded with dementia on practice registers.

Dementia mortality rates are also increasing in Hampshire and are comparable to the national rates. Between 2011 and 2015 the number of deaths from dementia has almost doubled.

Data for Hampshire in 2015 show that 73.9% of people aged 65 years and over with dementia died in their usual place of residence, compared to 68.6% in England and 71.6% across the South East region. Dementia and Alzheimer disease were the leading cause of death in England and Wales accounting for 11.6% of all deaths registered in 2015. Office for National Statistics stated that this in part because people are simply living longer but also because of improved detection and diagnosis. An update of the international rules for determining the underlying cause of death is also a factor, with the increase in cases attributed to these conditions accompanied by falls in other causes.

Directly Age Standardised Rate of Mortality: People with dementia aged 65+

The PHE dementia profile tool uses hospital admissions data as a proxy for identifying whether those with dementia are being supported well. In 2015/16 all hospital admission rates for all types of dementia and Alzheimer’s were significantly lower in Hampshire when compared to the national rates.